Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven Statistics & Analysis

Almere City FC

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.92

0 1.33

xG Accuracy: 52%

FC Eindhoven

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Almere City FC Almere City FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12701686

Closing Odds 1.37

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Almere City FC win · Almere City FC 3–0 FC Eindhoven

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), FC Eindhoven (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC Eindhoven (1X2) by about 11.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Almere City FC (1X2)	50.0	67.3	-17.4
Draw (1X2)	24.8	18.4	+6.3
FC Eindhoven (1X2)	25.2	14.2	+11.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.2% on FC Eindhoven (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.2%. The difference — about 11.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Almere City FC (1X2)	1.37	1.37
Draw (1X2)	5.0	5.0
FC Eindhoven (1X2)	6.5	6.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 24.8% · Away 25.2%
xG (showing): Almere City FC 1.92 — FC Eindhoven 1.33 (total xG ≈ 3.25)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 64.1% · No 35.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 64.1% · No 35.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	22
2	Almere City FC	9	6	1	2	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	6	0	3	18
4	Emmen	9	5	1	3	16
5	MVV	9	5	1	3	16
6	Roda	9	4	3	2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	3	5	1	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	14
9	NAC Breda	9	4	2	3	14
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
11	FC Volendam	9	4	0	5	12
12	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	3	2	4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	9
15	FC OSS	9	3	0	6	9
16	Den Bosch	9	2	2	5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
18	Dordrecht	9	2	2	5	8
19	De Graafschap	9	2	2	5	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	9	28	12	+16	22
2	VVV Venlo	9	23	14	+9	18
3	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
4	FC Volendam	9	20	17	+3	12
5	Almere City FC	9	19	7	+12	19
6	Waalwijk	9	19	12	+7	14
7	Emmen	9	19	18	+1	16
8	NAC Breda	9	19	19	0	14
9	Vitesse	9	15	13	+2	14
10	Helmond Sport	9	15	16	-1	9
11	FC Eindhoven	9	15	19	-4	11
12	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
13	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
14	Den Bosch	9	13	18	-5	8
15	MVV	9	13	19	-6	16
16	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
17	Dordrecht	9	13	24	-11	8
18	FC OSS	9	12	14	-2	9
19	De Graafschap	9	11	22	-11	8
20	Roda	9	9	7	+2	15

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	9	12.6	6.8	+5.8	22
2	FC Volendam	9	10.7	6.4	+4.3	12
3	NAC Breda	9	10.5	7.1	+3.4	14
4	Almere City FC	9	10.0	6.6	+3.4	19
5	Emmen	9	10.4	7.2	+3.2	16
6	Den Bosch	9	10.5	7.8	+2.7	8
7	Jong PSV	9	9.9	7.2	+2.7	12
8	MVV	9	7.0	4.5	+2.5	16
9	Vitesse	9	9.3	7.8	+1.5	14
10	Roda	9	9.6	8.5	+1.1	15
11	Jong AZ	9	7.7	6.6	+1.1	13
12	FC OSS	9	8.1	8.7	-0.6	9
13	Waalwijk	9	5.5	7.0	-1.5	14
14	VVV Venlo	9	8.1	10.3	-2.2	18
15	De Graafschap	9	7.0	9.2	-2.2	8
16	Jong Ajax	9	9.8	13.2	-3.4	8
17	Jong Utrecht	9	7.0	11.2	-4.2	7
18	Helmond Sport	9	4.1	9.0	-4.9	9
19	Dordrecht	9	6.0	11.9	-5.9	8
20	FC Eindhoven	9	4.4	11.0	-6.6	11