Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / VVV Venlo vs Roda

VVV Venlo vs Roda Statistics & Analysis

VVV Venlo VVV Venlo
Oct 04, 2026 - 12:30
2 1.60
0 1.80
xG Accuracy: 55%
Roda Roda
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Roda VVV Venlo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11665322

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VVV Venlo win · VVV Venlo 2–0 Roda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Roda
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.3% · Draw 25.0% · Away 41.7%
  • xG (showing): VVV Venlo 1.6 — Roda 1.8 (total xG ≈ 3.4)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.0% · Over 2.5 66.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 67.9% · No 32.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.9% · No 32.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 9 7 1 1 22
2 Almere City FC 9 6 1 2 19
3 VVV Venlo 9 6 0 3 18
4 Emmen 9 5 1 3 16
5 MVV 9 5 1 3 16
6 Roda 9 4 3 2 15
7 Waalwijk 9 3 5 1 14
8 Vitesse 9 4 2 3 14
9 NAC Breda 9 4 2 3 14
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 9 4 0 5 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 9 3 2 4 11
14 Helmond Sport 9 2 3 4 9
15 FC OSS 9 3 0 6 9
16 Den Bosch 9 2 2 5 8
17 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
18 Dordrecht 9 2 2 5 8
19 De Graafschap 9 2 2 5 8
20 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 9 28 12 +16 22
2 VVV Venlo 9 23 14 +9 18
3 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
4 FC Volendam 9 20 17 +3 12
5 Almere City FC 9 19 7 +12 19
6 Waalwijk 9 19 12 +7 14
7 Emmen 9 19 18 +1 16
8 NAC Breda 9 19 19 0 14
9 Vitesse 9 15 13 +2 14
10 Helmond Sport 9 15 16 -1 9
11 FC Eindhoven 9 15 19 -4 11
12 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
13 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
14 Den Bosch 9 13 18 -5 8
15 MVV 9 13 19 -6 16
16 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
17 Dordrecht 9 13 24 -11 8
18 FC OSS 9 12 14 -2 9
19 De Graafschap 9 11 22 -11 8
20 Roda 9 9 7 +2 15
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 9 9.6 5.1 +4.5 12
2 Heracles 9 10.1 6.0 +4.1 22
3 Emmen 9 9.2 6.2 +3.0 16
4 NAC Breda 9 9.8 6.9 +2.9 14
5 MVV 9 6.7 3.8 +2.9 16
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 9 9.6 7.0 +2.6 8
8 Vitesse 9 8.0 6.8 +1.2 14
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 9 7.2 6.1 +1.1 19
11 Roda 9 8.1 7.2 +0.9 15
12 Waalwijk 9 4.8 4.6 +0.2 14
13 FC OSS 9 5.3 7.3 -2.0 9
14 De Graafschap 9 5.4 7.6 -2.2 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 9 5.7 8.9 -3.2 18
17 Helmond Sport 9 2.6 6.2 -3.6 9
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 9 3.9 8.2 -4.3 11
20 Dordrecht 9 5.0 10.7 -5.7 8
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions