Vitesse vs NAC Breda Statistics & Analysis

Vitesse

Oct 03, 2026 - 14:30

2 1.80

2 1.98

xG Accuracy: 94%

NAC Breda

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 NAC Breda Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11247581

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Vitesse 2–2 NAC Breda

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: Vitesse vs NAC Breda
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.8% · Draw 23.4% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Vitesse 1.8 — NAC Breda 1.98 (total xG ≈ 3.78)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 72.8% · Implied: 64.4% · Probability edge: +8.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 73.0% · No 27.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	22
2	Almere City FC	9	6	1	2	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	6	0	3	18
4	Emmen	9	5	1	3	16
5	MVV	9	5	1	3	16
6	Roda	9	4	3	2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	3	5	1	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	14
9	NAC Breda	9	4	2	3	14
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
11	FC Volendam	9	4	0	5	12
12	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	3	2	4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	9
15	FC OSS	9	3	0	6	9
16	Den Bosch	9	2	2	5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
18	Dordrecht	9	2	2	5	8
19	De Graafschap	9	2	2	5	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	9	28	12	+16	22
2	VVV Venlo	9	23	14	+9	18
3	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
4	FC Volendam	9	20	17	+3	12
5	Almere City FC	9	19	7	+12	19
6	Waalwijk	9	19	12	+7	14
7	Emmen	9	19	18	+1	16
8	NAC Breda	9	19	19	0	14
9	Vitesse	9	15	13	+2	14
10	Helmond Sport	9	15	16	-1	9
11	FC Eindhoven	9	15	19	-4	11
12	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
13	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
14	Den Bosch	9	13	18	-5	8
15	MVV	9	13	19	-6	16
16	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
17	Dordrecht	9	13	24	-11	8
18	FC OSS	9	12	14	-2	9
19	De Graafschap	9	11	22	-11	8
20	Roda	9	9	7	+2	15

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Volendam	9	9.6	5.1	+4.5	12
2	Heracles	9	10.1	6.0	+4.1	22
3	Emmen	9	9.2	6.2	+3.0	16
4	NAC Breda	9	9.8	6.9	+2.9	14
5	MVV	9	6.7	3.8	+2.9	16
6	Jong PSV	9	8.5	5.7	+2.8	12
7	Den Bosch	9	9.6	7.0	+2.6	8
8	Vitesse	9	8.0	6.8	+1.2	14
9	Jong AZ	9	6.9	5.7	+1.2	13
10	Almere City FC	9	7.2	6.1	+1.1	19
11	Roda	9	8.1	7.2	+0.9	15
12	Waalwijk	9	4.8	4.6	+0.2	14
13	FC OSS	9	5.3	7.3	-2.0	9
14	De Graafschap	9	5.4	7.6	-2.2	8
15	Jong Ajax	9	8.4	10.8	-2.4	8
16	VVV Venlo	9	5.7	8.9	-3.2	18
17	Helmond Sport	9	2.6	6.2	-3.6	9
18	Jong Utrecht	9	5.4	9.6	-4.2	7
19	FC Eindhoven	9	3.9	8.2	-4.3	11
20	Dordrecht	9	5.0	10.7	-5.7	8