Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / FC Eindhoven vs Emmen

FC Eindhoven vs Emmen Statistics & Analysis

FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven
Sep 18, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.37
1 2.24
xG Accuracy: 45%
Emmen Emmen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Emmen FC Eindhoven ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 0-2, 2-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8220098

Closing Odds 3.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Eindhoven win · FC Eindhoven 3–1 Emmen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Emmen (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Emmen (1X2) by about 4.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Eindhoven (1X2) 21.8 25.7 -4.0
Draw (1X2) 22.1 22.1 +0.0
Emmen (1X2) 56.1 52.1 +4.0
Over 2.5 goals 69.9 66.5 +3.4
Under 2.5 goals 30.1 33.5 -3.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 56.1% on Emmen (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 52.1%. The difference — about 4.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Eindhoven (1X2) 3.69 3.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.29 4.29 0.0
Emmen (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.43 1.43 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.84 2.84 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Emmen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 21.8% · Draw 22.1% · Away 56.1%
  • xG (showing): FC Eindhoven 1.37 — Emmen 2.24 (total xG ≈ 3.61)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.1% · Over 2.5 69.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 67.7% · No 32.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.7% · No 32.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 18
2 Almere City FC 7 5 1 1 16
3 VVV Venlo 7 5 0 2 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 13
5 Vitesse 7 4 1 2 13
6 MVV 7 4 1 2 13
7 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
8 Roda 7 3 3 1 12
9 Emmen 7 4 0 3 12
10 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
11 FC Eindhoven 7 3 1 3 10
12 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 9
13 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 8
14 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
15 NAC Breda 6 2 1 3 7
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 7
17 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
18 FC OSS 7 2 0 5 6
19 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 4
20 Dordrecht 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 7 24 10 +14 18
2 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
3 VVV Venlo 7 19 11 +8 15
4 Waalwijk 7 18 9 +9 13
5 FC Volendam 7 17 14 +3 9
6 Emmen 7 17 17 0 12
7 Almere City FC 7 16 4 +12 16
8 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
9 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
10 Vitesse 7 13 9 +4 13
11 Helmond Sport 7 13 12 +1 8
12 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
13 Den Bosch 7 12 16 -4 7
14 FC Eindhoven 7 11 13 -2 10
15 NAC Breda 6 11 14 -3 7
16 MVV 7 10 15 -5 13
17 Dordrecht 7 9 21 -12 4
18 FC OSS 7 8 12 -4 6
19 Roda 7 7 5 +2 12
20 De Graafschap 6 7 18 -11 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 7 9.6 5.1 +4.5 9
2 Heracles 7 10.1 6.0 +4.1 18
3 Emmen 7 9.2 6.2 +3.0 12
4 NAC Breda 6 9.8 6.9 +2.9 7
5 MVV 7 6.7 3.8 +2.9 13
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 7 9.6 7.0 +2.6 7
8 Vitesse 7 8.0 6.8 +1.2 13
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 7 7.2 6.1 +1.1 16
11 Roda 7 8.1 7.2 +0.9 12
12 Waalwijk 7 4.8 4.6 +0.2 13
13 FC OSS 7 5.3 7.3 -2.0 6
14 De Graafschap 6 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 7 5.7 8.9 -3.2 15
17 Helmond Sport 7 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 7 3.9 8.2 -4.3 10
20 Dordrecht 7 5.0 10.7 -5.7 4
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions