Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk Statistics & Analysis

Jong Ajax

Sep 11, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.48

2 1.55

xG Accuracy: 59%

Waalwijk

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Waalwijk Waalwijk ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7037148

Closing Odds 1.97

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Waalwijk win · Jong Ajax 0–2 Waalwijk

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Jong Ajax (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Jong Ajax (1X2)	35.0	28.2	+6.8
Draw (1X2)	27.0	23.5	+3.5
Waalwijk (1X2)	38.0	48.3	-10.2
Over 2.5 goals	58.4	68.6	-10.2
Under 2.5 goals	41.6	31.4	+10.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.4%. The difference — about 10.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Jong Ajax (1X2)	3.37	3.37
Draw (1X2)	4.04	4.04
Waalwijk (1X2)	1.97	1.97
Over 2.5 goals	1.38	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	3.02	3.02

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 27.0% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Jong Ajax 1.48 — Waalwijk 1.55 (total xG ≈ 3.03)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 41.6% · Implied: 31.5% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +41.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	8	7	0	1	21
2	Almere City FC	8	5	1	2	16
3	MVV	8	5	1	2	16
4	VVV Venlo	8	5	0	3	15
5	Roda	8	4	3	1	15
6	Emmen	8	5	0	3	15
7	Waalwijk	8	3	4	1	13
8	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	13
9	NAC Breda	8	4	1	3	13
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
11	FC Volendam	8	4	0	4	12
12	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
13	FC Eindhoven	8	3	1	4	10
14	Helmond Sport	8	2	2	4	8
15	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
16	Den Bosch	7	2	1	4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	2	1	5	7
18	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7
19	FC OSS	8	2	0	6	6
20	De Graafschap	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	8	26	10	+16	21
2	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
3	VVV Venlo	8	21	14	+7	15
4	FC Volendam	8	20	16	+4	12
5	Almere City FC	8	18	7	+11	16
6	Waalwijk	8	18	11	+7	13
7	Emmen	8	18	17	+1	15
8	NAC Breda	8	17	17	0	13
9	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
10	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
11	Vitesse	8	13	11	+2	13
12	Helmond Sport	8	13	14	-1	8
13	FC Eindhoven	8	13	17	-4	10
14	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
15	MVV	8	12	15	-3	16
16	Den Bosch	7	12	16	-4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	12	23	-11	7
18	Roda	8	9	5	+4	15
19	FC OSS	8	8	13	-5	6
20	De Graafschap	7	8	20	-12	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Volendam	8	9.6	5.1	+4.5	12
2	Heracles	8	10.1	6.0	+4.1	21
3	Emmen	8	9.2	6.2	+3.0	15
4	NAC Breda	8	9.8	6.9	+2.9	13
5	MVV	8	6.7	3.8	+2.9	16
6	Jong PSV	9	8.5	5.7	+2.8	12
7	Den Bosch	7	9.6	7.0	+2.6	7
8	Vitesse	8	8.0	6.8	+1.2	13
9	Jong AZ	9	6.9	5.7	+1.2	13
10	Almere City FC	8	7.2	6.1	+1.1	16
11	Roda	8	8.1	7.2	+0.9	15
12	Waalwijk	8	4.8	4.6	+0.2	13
13	FC OSS	8	5.3	7.3	-2.0	6
14	De Graafschap	7	5.4	7.6	-2.2	4
15	Jong Ajax	9	8.4	10.8	-2.4	8
16	VVV Venlo	8	5.7	8.9	-3.2	15
17	Helmond Sport	8	2.6	6.2	-3.6	8
18	Jong Utrecht	9	5.4	9.6	-4.2	7
19	FC Eindhoven	8	3.9	8.2	-4.3	10
20	Dordrecht	8	5.0	10.7	-5.7	7