Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / De Graafschap vs Jong AZ

De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Statistics & Analysis

De Graafschap De Graafschap
Aug 17, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.86
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 34%
Jong AZ Jong AZ
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 De Graafschap Jong AZ ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3619603

Closing Odds 4.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Jong AZ win · De Graafschap 2–5 Jong AZ
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.55 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
De Graafschap (1X2) 50.3 54.9 -4.6
Draw (1X2) 25.4 19.2 +6.2
Jong AZ (1X2) 24.3 25.9 -1.6
Over 2.5 goals 60.1 73.3 -13.2
Under 2.5 goals 39.9 26.7 +13.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 26.7%. The difference — about 13.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
De Graafschap (1X2) 1.72 1.73 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 4.93 4.94 -0.0
Jong AZ (1X2) 3.69 3.66 +0.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.3 1.29 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 3.47 3.54 -0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.3% · Draw 25.4% · Away 24.3%
  • xG (showing): De Graafschap 1.86 — Jong AZ 1.25 (total xG ≈ 3.11)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 39.9% · Implied: 28.0% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +41.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.6% · No 38.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 6 6 0 0 18
2 Almere City FC 6 4 1 1 13
3 MVV 6 4 1 1 13
4 VVV Venlo 6 4 0 2 12
5 Emmen 6 4 0 2 12
6 Roda 6 3 2 1 11
7 Jong PSV 7 3 2 2 11
8 Waalwijk 6 2 4 0 10
9 Vitesse 6 3 1 2 10
10 FC Volendam 6 3 0 3 9
11 Jong AZ 7 3 0 4 9
12 Helmond Sport 6 2 2 2 8
13 NAC Breda 6 2 1 3 7
14 FC Eindhoven 6 2 1 3 7
15 Jong Ajax 7 2 1 4 7
16 Den Bosch 6 1 1 4 4
17 Dordrecht 6 1 1 4 4
18 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 4
19 Jong Utrecht 7 1 1 5 4
20 FC OSS 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 6 24 9 +15 18
2 Jong AZ 7 17 15 +2 9
3 VVV Venlo 6 16 10 +6 12
4 FC Volendam 6 16 10 +6 9
5 Emmen 6 16 14 +2 12
6 Almere City FC 6 15 4 +11 13
7 Waalwijk 6 12 8 +4 10
8 Helmond Sport 6 12 10 +2 8
9 Jong PSV 7 12 12 0 11
10 Jong Ajax 7 12 16 -4 7
11 NAC Breda 6 11 14 -3 7
12 Vitesse 6 10 8 +2 10
13 Den Bosch 6 10 15 -5 4
14 MVV 6 9 9 0 13
15 Dordrecht 6 9 18 -9 4
16 FC Eindhoven 6 8 12 -4 7
17 Jong Utrecht 7 8 17 -9 4
18 Roda 6 7 5 +2 11
19 De Graafschap 6 7 18 -11 4
20 FC OSS 6 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 6 9.6 5.1 +4.5 9
2 Heracles 6 10.1 6.0 +4.1 18
3 Emmen 6 9.2 6.2 +3.0 12
4 NAC Breda 6 9.8 6.9 +2.9 7
5 MVV 6 6.7 3.8 +2.9 13
6 Jong PSV 7 8.5 5.7 +2.8 11
7 Den Bosch 6 9.6 7.0 +2.6 4
8 Vitesse 6 8.0 6.8 +1.2 10
9 Jong AZ 7 6.9 5.7 +1.2 9
10 Almere City FC 6 7.2 6.1 +1.1 13
11 Roda 6 8.1 7.2 +0.9 11
12 Waalwijk 6 4.8 4.6 +0.2 10
13 FC OSS 6 5.3 7.3 -2.0 3
14 De Graafschap 6 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 7 8.4 10.8 -2.4 7
16 VVV Venlo 6 5.7 8.9 -3.2 12
17 Helmond Sport 6 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 7 5.4 9.6 -4.2 4
19 FC Eindhoven 6 3.9 8.2 -4.3 7
20 Dordrecht 6 5.0 10.7 -5.7 4
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions