Statistics / Football / Slovakia. Super Liga / AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica Statistics & Analysis

AS Trencin AS Trencin
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Dukla Banská Bystrica Dukla Banská Bystrica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 AS Trencin Dukla Banská Bystrica ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13217485

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dukla Banská Bystrica win · AS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.05 percentage points on AS Trencin (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dukla Banská Bystrica (1X2) by about 5.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
AS Trencin (1X2) 36.1 45.7 -9.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.7 +4.0
Dukla Banská Bystrica (1X2) 34.2 28.6 +5.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Dukla Banská Bystrica (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.6%. The difference — about 5.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: duelbits

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
AS Trencin (1X2) 1.93 1.97 -1.1
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.5 +0.7
Dukla Banská Bystrica (1X2) 3.2 3.15 +0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): AS Trencin 1.32 — Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 6 2 0 20
2 Žilina 9 6 2 1 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 5 3 1 18
4 Slovan Bratislava 8 5 1 2 16
5 Podbrezová 9 4 2 3 14
6 Zemplín Michalovce 9 4 1 4 13
7 FK Košice 8 3 3 2 12
8 Skalica 9 2 2 5 8
9 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 2 1 6 7
10 Komárno 9 0 5 4 5
11 AS Trencin 8 1 2 5 5
12 Ružomberok 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 25 5 +20 20
2 Žilina 9 23 17 +6 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 21 10 +11 18
4 FK Košice 8 21 18 +3 12
5 Slovan Bratislava 8 20 9 +11 16
6 Podbrezová 9 13 16 -3 14
7 Skalica 9 11 19 -8 8
8 AS Trencin 8 10 20 -10 5
9 Zemplín Michalovce 9 9 11 -2 13
10 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 9 21 -12 7
11 Komárno 9 8 14 -6 5
12 Ružomberok 9 8 18 -10 5
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