Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava Statistics & Analysis

Podbrezová

Oct 11, 2026 - 16:00

1 2.08

3 1.22

xG Accuracy: 46%

Spartak Trnava

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Podbrezová Spartak Trnava ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13229170

Closing Odds 2.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Spartak Trnava win · Podbrezová 1–3 Spartak Trnava

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Podbrezová (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Podbrezová (1X2) by about 18.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Podbrezová (1X2)	55.9	37.2	+18.8
Draw (1X2)	23.4	27.8	-4.4
Spartak Trnava (1X2)	20.7	35.1	-14.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 55.9% on Podbrezová (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 37.2%. The difference — about 18.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Podbrezová (1X2)	2.5	2.5
Draw (1X2)	3.35	3.35
Spartak Trnava (1X2)	2.65	2.65

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Super Liga
Fixture: Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 55.9% · Draw 23.4% · Away 20.7%
xG (showing): Podbrezová 2.08 — Spartak Trnava 1.22 (total xG ≈ 3.3)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Podbrezová
Model: 55.9% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +18.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 62.9% · No 37.1%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	8	6	2	0	20
2	Žilina	9	6	2	1	20
3	Spartak Trnava	9	5	3	1	18
4	Slovan Bratislava	8	5	1	2	16
5	Podbrezová	9	4	2	3	14
6	Zemplín Michalovce	9	4	1	4	13
7	FK Košice	8	3	3	2	12
8	Skalica	9	2	2	5	8
9	Dukla Banská Bystrica	9	2	1	6	7
10	Komárno	9	0	5	4	5
11	AS Trencin	8	1	2	5	5
12	Ružomberok	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	8	25	5	+20	20
2	Žilina	9	23	17	+6	20
3	Spartak Trnava	9	21	10	+11	18
4	FK Košice	8	21	18	+3	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	8	20	9	+11	16
6	Podbrezová	9	13	16	-3	14
7	Skalica	9	11	19	-8	8
8	AS Trencin	8	10	20	-10	5
9	Zemplín Michalovce	9	9	11	-2	13
10	Dukla Banská Bystrica	9	9	21	-12	7
11	Komárno	9	8	14	-6	5
12	Ružomberok	9	8	18	-10	5