Statistics / Football / Slovakia. Super Liga / Dunajska Streda vs Spartak Trnava

Dunajska Streda vs Spartak Trnava Statistics & Analysis

Dunajska Streda Dunajska Streda
Sep 20, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.72
2 1.55
xG Accuracy: 82%
Spartak Trnava Spartak Trnava
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dunajska Streda Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8692748

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Dunajska Streda 2–2 Spartak Trnava
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.53 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Spartak Trnava (1X2) by about 13.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dunajska Streda (1X2) 40.8 55.0 -14.2
Draw (1X2) 25.7 25.2 +0.4
Spartak Trnava (1X2) 33.5 19.7 +13.8
Over 2.5 goals 63.4 54.9 +8.5
Under 2.5 goals 36.5 45.1 -8.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.5% on Spartak Trnava (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.7%. The difference — about 13.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dunajska Streda (1X2) 1.72 1.72 -0.1
Draw (1X2) 4.0 3.75 +1.5
Spartak Trnava (1X2) 4.49 4.8 -1.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.73 1.74 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.13 2.12 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: Dunajska Streda vs Spartak Trnava
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 33.5%
  • xG (showing): Dunajska Streda 1.72 — Spartak Trnava 1.55 (total xG ≈ 3.27)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 63.4% · Implied: 55.3% · Probability edge: +8.1 pts · Est. EV: +10.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.0% · No 34.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 6 2 0 20
2 Žilina 9 6 2 1 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 5 3 1 18
4 Slovan Bratislava 8 5 1 2 16
5 Podbrezová 9 4 2 3 14
6 Zemplín Michalovce 9 4 1 4 13
7 FK Košice 8 3 3 2 12
8 Skalica 9 2 2 5 8
9 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 2 1 6 7
10 Komárno 9 0 5 4 5
11 AS Trencin 8 1 2 5 5
12 Ružomberok 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 25 5 +20 20
2 Žilina 9 23 17 +6 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 21 10 +11 18
4 FK Košice 8 21 18 +3 12
5 Slovan Bratislava 8 20 9 +11 16
6 Podbrezová 9 13 16 -3 14
7 Skalica 9 11 19 -8 8
8 AS Trencin 8 10 20 -10 5
9 Zemplín Michalovce 9 9 11 -2 13
10 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 9 21 -12 7
11 Komárno 9 8 14 -6 5
12 Ružomberok 9 8 18 -10 5