Slovan Bratislava vs Žilina Statistics & Analysis

Slovan Bratislava

Sep 13, 2026 - 17:00

3 1.74

3 1.09

xG Accuracy: 42%

Žilina

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Slovan Bratislava Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7454486

Closing Odds 1.56

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Slovan Bratislava 3–3 Žilina

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Žilina (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Slovan Bratislava (1X2)	51.1	60.8	-9.7
Draw (1X2)	26.6	20.4	+6.2
Žilina (1X2)	22.3	18.8	+3.5
Over 2.5 goals	53.8	66.2	-12.4
Under 2.5 goals	46.2	33.8	+12.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 46.2% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.8%. The difference — about 12.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Slovan Bratislava (1X2)	1.56	1.56
Draw (1X2)	4.64	4.64
Žilina (1X2)	5.04	5.04
Over 2.5 goals	1.43	1.43
Under 2.5 goals	2.8	2.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Super Liga
Fixture: Slovan Bratislava vs Žilina
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 51.1% · Draw 26.6% · Away 22.3%
xG (showing): Slovan Bratislava 1.74 — Žilina 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.83)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 46.2% · Implied: 34.9% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +27.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	8	6	2	0	20
2	Žilina	9	6	2	1	20
3	Spartak Trnava	9	5	3	1	18
4	Slovan Bratislava	8	5	1	2	16
5	Podbrezová	9	4	2	3	14
6	Zemplín Michalovce	9	4	1	4	13
7	FK Košice	8	3	3	2	12
8	Skalica	9	2	2	5	8
9	Dukla Banská Bystrica	9	2	1	6	7
10	Komárno	9	0	5	4	5
11	AS Trencin	8	1	2	5	5
12	Ružomberok	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	8	25	5	+20	20
2	Žilina	9	23	17	+6	20
3	Spartak Trnava	9	21	10	+11	18
4	FK Košice	8	21	18	+3	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	8	20	9	+11	16
6	Podbrezová	9	13	16	-3	14
7	Skalica	9	11	19	-8	8
8	AS Trencin	8	10	20	-10	5
9	Zemplín Michalovce	9	9	11	-2	13
10	Dukla Banská Bystrica	9	9	21	-12	7
11	Komárno	9	8	14	-6	5
12	Ružomberok	9	8	18	-10	5