Statistics / Football / Slovakia. Super Liga / Dunajska Streda vs Podbrezová

Dunajska Streda vs Podbrezová Statistics & Analysis

Dunajska Streda Dunajska Streda
Aug 22, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.39
0 2.03
xG Accuracy: 21%
Podbrezová Podbrezová
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Podbrezová Dunajska Streda ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 2-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4236626

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dunajska Streda win · Dunajska Streda 5–0 Podbrezová
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Podbrezová (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Podbrezová (1X2) by about 28.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dunajska Streda (1X2) 25.0 54.8 -29.8
Draw (1X2) 23.9 22.5 +1.4
Podbrezová (1X2) 51.1 22.6 +28.4
Over 2.5 goals 66.4 63.8 +2.6
Under 2.5 goals 33.6 36.2 -2.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.1% on Podbrezová (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.6%. The difference — about 28.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Dunajska Streda (1X2) 1.73 1.73 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.21 4.21 0.0
Podbrezová (1X2) 4.19 4.19 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.49 1.49 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.62 2.62 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: Dunajska Streda vs Podbrezová
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.0% · Draw 23.9% · Away 51.1%
  • xG (showing): Dunajska Streda 1.39 — Podbrezová 2.03 (total xG ≈ 3.42)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Podbrezová
  • Model: 51.1% · Implied: 22.6% · Probability edge: +28.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.4% · No 33.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 6 2 0 20
2 Žilina 9 6 2 1 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 5 3 1 18
4 Slovan Bratislava 8 5 1 2 16
5 Podbrezová 9 4 2 3 14
6 Zemplín Michalovce 9 4 1 4 13
7 FK Košice 8 3 3 2 12
8 Skalica 9 2 2 5 8
9 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 2 1 6 7
10 Komárno 9 0 5 4 5
11 AS Trencin 8 1 2 5 5
12 Ružomberok 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 25 5 +20 20
2 Žilina 9 23 17 +6 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 21 10 +11 18
4 FK Košice 8 21 18 +3 12
5 Slovan Bratislava 8 20 9 +11 16
6 Podbrezová 9 13 16 -3 14
7 Skalica 9 11 19 -8 8
8 AS Trencin 8 10 20 -10 5
9 Zemplín Michalovce 9 9 11 -2 13
10 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 9 21 -12 7
11 Komárno 9 8 14 -6 5
12 Ružomberok 9 8 18 -10 5