Statistics / Football / Slovakia. Super Liga / Žilina vs FK Košice

Žilina vs FK Košice Statistics & Analysis

Žilina Žilina
Jul 26, 2026 - 15:00
4 2.06
4 1.29
xG Accuracy: 28%
FK Košice FK Košice
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MŠK Žilina Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454326

Closing Odds 3.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Žilina 4–4 FK Košice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Žilina (1X2) 53.5 52.2 +1.3
Draw (1X2) 23.7 23.2 +0.4
FK Košice (1X2) 22.8 24.6 -1.8
Over 2.5 goals 65.0 64.1 +0.9
Under 2.5 goals 34.9 35.9 -1.0

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Žilina (1X2) 1.81 1.82 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 4.1 4.09 +0.1
FK Košice (1X2) 3.88 3.87 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.48 1.48 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.63 2.64 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: MŠK Žilina vs FK Košice
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.5% · Draw 23.7% · Away 22.8%
  • xG (showing): MŠK Žilina 2.06 — FK Košice 1.29 (total xG ≈ 3.35)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.9% · Over 2.5 65.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 6 2 0 20
2 Žilina 9 6 2 1 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 5 3 1 18
4 Slovan Bratislava 8 5 1 2 16
5 Podbrezová 9 4 2 3 14
6 Zemplín Michalovce 9 4 1 4 13
7 FK Košice 8 3 3 2 12
8 Skalica 9 2 2 5 8
9 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 2 1 6 7
10 Komárno 9 0 5 4 5
11 AS Trencin 8 1 2 5 5
12 Ružomberok 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dunajska Streda 8 25 5 +20 20
2 Žilina 9 23 17 +6 20
3 Spartak Trnava 9 21 10 +11 18
4 FK Košice 8 21 18 +3 12
5 Slovan Bratislava 8 20 9 +11 16
6 Podbrezová 9 13 16 -3 14
7 Skalica 9 11 19 -8 8
8 AS Trencin 8 10 20 -10 5
9 Zemplín Michalovce 9 9 11 -2 13
10 Dukla Banská Bystrica 9 9 21 -12 7
11 Komárno 9 8 14 -6 5
12 Ružomberok 9 8 18 -10 5