Tikveš vs Bregalnica Štip Statistics & Analysis

Tikveš

Oct 10, 2026 - 10:00

3 1.40

0 1.20

xG Accuracy: 46%

Bregalnica Štip

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tikveš Tikveš ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12690392

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tikveš win · Tikveš 3–0 Bregalnica Štip

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: First League
Fixture: Tikveš vs Bregalnica Štip
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Tikveš 1.4 — Bregalnica Štip 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Shkendija	8	6	1	1	19
2	Struga	8	5	2	1	17
3	Vardar Skopje	8	4	2	2	14
4	Tikveš	8	3	4	1	13
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	4	1	3	13
6	Bregalnica Štip	8	3	1	4	10
7	Sileks	8	2	3	3	9
8	Aresimi	8	2	2	4	8
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	1	1	6	4
10	Skopje	8	0	3	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Shkendija	8	20	8	+12	19
2	Struga	8	19	5	+14	17
3	Tikveš	8	17	7	+10	13
4	Vardar Skopje	8	14	8	+6	14
5	Sileks	8	13	10	+3	9
6	Bregalnica Štip	8	11	13	-2	10
7	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	7	25	-18	4
8	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	6	9	-3	13
9	Aresimi	8	6	19	-13	8
10	Skopje	8	3	12	-9	3