AB Copenhagen vs Aarhus Fremad Statistics & Analysis

AB Copenhagen

Oct 09, 2026 - 17:00

2 1.28

0 1.32

xG Accuracy: 57%

Aarhus Fremad

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Aarhus Fremad AB Copenhagen ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12695757

Closing Odds 2.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result AB Copenhagen win · AB Copenhagen 2–0 Aarhus Fremad

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Aarhus Fremad (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Aarhus Fremad (1X2) by about 6.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
AB Copenhagen (1X2)	34.2	43.8	-9.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	26.2	+3.5
Aarhus Fremad (1X2)	36.1	30.0	+6.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Aarhus Fremad (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.0%. The difference — about 6.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: kto br

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
AB Copenhagen (1X2)	2.12	2.12
Draw (1X2)	3.55	3.55
Aarhus Fremad (1X2)	3.1	3.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 1. Division
Fixture: AB Copenhagen vs Aarhus Fremad
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): AB Copenhagen 1.28 — Aarhus Fremad 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Hvidovre	9	6	3	0	21
2	Vejle	9	5	4	0	19
3	FC Fredericia	9	3	5	1	14
4	Aarhus Fremad	9	3	4	2	13
5	Aalborg	9	3	4	2	13
6	Hobro	9	4	1	4	13
7	Vendsyssel FF	9	2	4	3	10
8	AB Copenhagen	9	2	3	4	9
9	Hillerød	9	2	3	4	9
10	Kolding IF	9	1	5	3	8
11	HB Koge	9	1	4	4	7
12	Esbjerg	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vejle	9	22	13	+9	19
2	Hvidovre	9	18	9	+9	21
3	Hillerød	9	13	14	-1	9
4	FC Fredericia	9	12	6	+6	14
5	Hobro	9	12	16	-4	13
6	AB Copenhagen	9	11	10	+1	9
7	Aalborg	9	11	11	0	13
8	HB Koge	9	11	17	-6	7
9	Aarhus Fremad	9	10	9	+1	13
10	Kolding IF	9	10	12	-2	8
11	Vendsyssel FF	9	10	14	-4	10
12	Esbjerg	9	10	19	-9	5