Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna Statistics & Analysis

Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.18
1 0.75
xG Accuracy: 68%
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Botev Vratsa Spartak Varna ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13195225

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spartak Varna win · Botev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak Varna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.5% · Draw 33.8% · Away 21.8%
  • xG (showing): Botev Vratsa 1.18 — Spartak Varna 0.75 (total xG ≈ 1.93)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.6% · Implied: 56.6% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +16.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.2% · No 61.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (17.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7
First League Bulgaria. First League Predictions