Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia Statistics & Analysis

Ludogorets

Sep 14, 2026 - 17:30

2 1.64

1 0.55

xG Accuracy: 80%

Septemvri Sofia

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ludogorets Ludogorets ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7457557

Closing Odds 1.25

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ludogorets win · Ludogorets 2–1 Septemvri Sofia

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Septemvri Sofia (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 21.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ludogorets (1X2)	62.8	75.3	-12.5
Draw (1X2)	26.4	16.1	+10.4
Septemvri Sofia (1X2)	10.8	8.6	+2.1
Over 2.5 goals	37.5	58.5	-21.0
Under 2.5 goals	62.5	41.5	+21.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 62.5% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.5%. The difference — about 21.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ludogorets (1X2)	1.25	1.25
Draw (1X2)	5.86	5.86
Septemvri Sofia (1X2)	10.91	10.91
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	2.28	2.28

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: First League
Fixture: Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia
Kickoff: 2026-09-14 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 62.8% · Draw 26.4% · Away 10.8%
xG (showing): Ludogorets 1.64 — Septemvri Sofia 0.55 (total xG ≈ 2.19)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 62.5% · Implied: 41.7% · Probability edge: +20.8 pts · Est. EV: +43.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 35.4% · No 64.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (18.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CSKA Sofia	10	24	7	+17	24
2	Levski Sofia	9	21	4	+17	25
3	CSKA 1948	10	19	10	+9	22
4	Ludogorets	9	16	7	+9	23
5	Botev Plovdiv	10	16	14	+2	16
6	Arda Kardzhali	10	15	12	+3	17
7	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	11	18	-7	7
8	Cherno More Varna	10	11	20	-9	6
9	Spartak Varna	10	10	15	-5	10
10	Dunav Ruse	10	10	19	-9	5
11	Slavia Sofia	10	9	8	+1	11
12	Botev Vratsa	10	9	19	-10	9
13	Septemvri Sofia	10	8	18	-10	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	5	13	-8	7