Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. First League / CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali Statistics & Analysis

CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
Sep 12, 2026 - 18:15
4 1.12
1 0.83
xG Accuracy: 43%
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7457552

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result CSKA Sofia win · CSKA Sofia 4–1 Arda Kardzhali
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Arda Kardzhali (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
CSKA Sofia (1X2) 40.5 52.1 -11.6
Draw (1X2) 34.3 30.0 +4.2
Arda Kardzhali (1X2) 25.2 17.8 +7.4
Over 2.5 goals 31.0 45.7 -14.7
Under 2.5 goals 69.0 54.3 +14.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 69.0% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 54.3%. The difference — about 14.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
CSKA Sofia (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.16 3.16 0.0
Arda Kardzhali (1X2) 5.32 5.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.09 2.09 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 34.3% · Away 25.2%
  • xG (showing): CSKA Sofia 1.12 — Arda Kardzhali 0.83 (total xG ≈ 1.95)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.0% · Implied: 54.7% · Probability edge: +14.3 pts · Est. EV: +19.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 39.7% · No 60.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7