Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia

Prediction Audit: Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia
Sep 02, 2026 - 17:00
1 0.78
2 1.76
xG Accuracy: 88%
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.54) — 3 goals materialised
  • Levski Sofia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.76 vs 0.78)
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Levski Sofia win · 1–2

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3362220

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Levski Sofia win · Slavia Sofia 1–2 Levski Sofia
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 14.8% · Draw 25.9% · Away 59.3%
  • xG (showing): Slavia Sofia 0.78 — Levski Sofia 1.76 (total xG ≈ 2.54)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.4% · Over 2.5 46.6%); BTTS No (Yes 46.2% · No 53.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.2% · No 53.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 11, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 14 10 4 0 34
2 Levski Sofia 13 10 2 1 32
3 Ludogorets 13 9 3 1 30
4 CSKA 1948 14 9 2 3 29
5 Botev Plovdiv 14 7 2 5 23
6 Arda Kardzhali 14 6 3 5 21
7 Spartak Varna 14 4 4 6 16
8 Slavia Sofia 14 2 8 4 14
9 Cherno More Varna 14 3 4 7 13
10 Dunav Ruse 14 3 3 8 12
11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14 3 3 8 12
12 Septemvri Sofia 14 3 2 9 11
13 Botev Vratsa 14 2 4 8 10
14 Lokomotiv Sofia 14 1 6 7 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA 1948 14 33 16 +17 29
2 CSKA Sofia 14 32 9 +23 34
3 Ludogorets 13 26 11 +15 30
4 Levski Sofia 13 25 8 +17 32
5 Botev Plovdiv 14 23 21 +2 23
6 Arda Kardzhali 14 20 22 -2 21
7 Dunav Ruse 14 16 23 -7 12
8 Spartak Varna 14 15 25 -10 16
9 Lokomotiv Sofia 14 15 26 -11 9
10 Cherno More Varna 14 14 22 -8 13
11 Septemvri Sofia 14 12 25 -13 11
12 Botev Vratsa 14 11 24 -13 10
13 Slavia Sofia 14 9 9 0 14
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14 8 18 -10 12