Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. First League / Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia Statistics & Analysis

Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
Jul 25, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.80
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 68%
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lokomotiv Sofia Levski Sofia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456847

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds 2.1
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Levski Sofia win · Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Levski Sofia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 47.7%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.76 percentage points on Levski Sofia (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lokomotiv Sofia (1X2) by about 22.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lokomotiv Sofia (1X2) 39.3 17.2 +22.1
Draw (1X2) 26.1 21.2 +4.8
Levski Sofia (1X2) 34.6 61.5 -27.0
Over 2.5 goals 61.4 64.1 -2.7
Under 2.5 goals 38.6 35.9 +2.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.3% on Lokomotiv Sofia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.2%. The difference — about 22.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lokomotiv Sofia (1X2) 6.19 5.51 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 4.63 4.46 +0.8
Levski Sofia (1X2) 1.47 1.54 -2.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.49 +1.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.58 2.66 -1.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Bulgarian First League
  • Fixture: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): Lokomotiv Sofia 1.8 — Levski Sofia 1.37 (total xG ≈ 3.17)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 63.6% · Implied: 57.8% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 19, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 9 7 2 0 23
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 9 6 1 2 19
5 Arda Kardzhali 9 5 1 3 16
6 Botev Plovdiv 9 4 1 4 13
7 Slavia Sofia 9 2 5 2 11
8 Spartak Varna 9 2 4 3 10
9 Botev Vratsa 9 2 2 5 8
10 Septemvri Sofia 9 2 2 5 8
11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 9 2 0 7 6
12 Cherno More Varna 9 1 2 6 5
13 Lokomotiv Sofia 9 0 4 5 4
14 Dunav Ruse 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 9 23 6 +17 23
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 9 17 9 +8 19
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Arda Kardzhali 9 14 11 +3 16
6 Botev Plovdiv 9 13 14 -1 13
7 Spartak Varna 9 10 14 -4 10
8 Lokomotiv Sofia 9 10 18 -8 4
9 Cherno More Varna 9 10 19 -9 5
10 Slavia Sofia 9 8 6 +2 11
11 Septemvri Sofia 9 8 15 -7 8
12 Dunav Ruse 9 8 17 -9 4
13 Botev Vratsa 9 7 17 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 9 4 12 -8 6
First League Bulgaria. First League Predictions