Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. First League / CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv Statistics & Analysis

CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
Jul 27, 2026 - 18:15
3 2.07
2 1.12
xG Accuracy: 61%
Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457899

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result CSKA Sofia win · CSKA Sofia 3–2 Botev Plovdiv
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices CSKA Sofia (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
CSKA Sofia (1X2) 57.5 56.0 +1.6
Draw (1X2) 23.9 25.2 -1.3
Botev Plovdiv (1X2) 18.6 18.8 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 61.8 52.3 +9.5
Under 2.5 goals 38.2 47.7 -9.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 61.8% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 52.3%. The difference — about 9.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
CSKA Sofia (1X2) 1.69 1.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.76 3.76 0.0
Botev Plovdiv (1X2) 5.03 5.03 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 57.6% · Draw 23.9% · Away 18.6%
  • xG (showing): CSKA Sofia 2.07 — Botev Plovdiv 1.12 (total xG ≈ 3.19)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.8% · Implied: 52.2% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +14.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.1% · No 39.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 23
4 CSKA 1948 10 7 1 2 22
5 Arda Kardzhali 10 5 2 3 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8
11 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 1 4 5 7
12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 7
13 Cherno More Varna 10 1 3 6 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Sofia 10 24 7 +17 24
2 Levski Sofia 9 21 4 +17 25
3 CSKA 1948 10 19 10 +9 22
4 Ludogorets 9 16 7 +9 23
5 Botev Plovdiv 10 16 14 +2 16
6 Arda Kardzhali 10 15 12 +3 17
7 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 11 18 -7 7
8 Cherno More Varna 10 11 20 -9 6
9 Spartak Varna 10 10 15 -5 10
10 Dunav Ruse 10 10 19 -9 5
11 Slavia Sofia 10 9 8 +1 11
12 Botev Vratsa 10 9 19 -10 9
13 Septemvri Sofia 10 8 18 -10 8
14 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10 5 13 -8 7