Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse Statistics & Analysis

Levski Sofia

Jul 17, 2026 - 18:15

2 1.48

1 1.12

xG Accuracy: 84%

Dunav Ruse

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1544497

Closing Odds 1.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Levski Sofia win · Levski Sofia 2–1 Dunav Ruse

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Dunav Ruse (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dunav Ruse (1X2) by about 23.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Levski Sofia (1X2)	43.9	84.8	-40.9
Draw (1X2)	29.1	11.5	+17.6
Dunav Ruse (1X2)	27.1	3.8	+23.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.7	-13.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.3	+13.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.1% on Dunav Ruse (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 3.8%. The difference — about 23.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Levski Sofia (1X2)	1.12	1.12
Draw (1X2)	8.27	8.27
Dunav Ruse (1X2)	25.31	25.31
Over 2.5 goals	1.54	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	2.48	2.48

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Levski Sofia; market prices Levski Sofia instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Levski Sofia 1.48 xG vs Dunav Ruse 1.12 → Levski Sofia 43.8%
Market: Levski Sofia ~84.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 17, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Levski Sofia & Dunav Ruse!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	25
2	CSKA Sofia	8	6	2	0	20
3	Ludogorets	8	6	2	0	20
4	CSKA 1948	9	6	1	2	19
5	Arda Kardzhali	9	5	1	3	16
6	Botev Plovdiv	9	4	1	4	13
7	Slavia Sofia	9	2	5	2	11
8	Spartak Varna	9	2	4	3	10
9	Botev Vratsa	9	2	2	5	8
10	Septemvri Sofia	8	2	2	4	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	9	2	0	7	6
12	Cherno More Varna	9	1	2	6	5
13	Lokomotiv Sofia	8	0	4	4	4
14	Dunav Ruse	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Levski Sofia	9	21	4	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	8	21	6	+15	20
3	CSKA 1948	9	17	9	+8	19
4	Ludogorets	8	14	6	+8	20
5	Arda Kardzhali	9	14	11	+3	16
6	Botev Plovdiv	9	13	14	-1	13
7	Spartak Varna	9	10	14	-4	10
8	Lokomotiv Sofia	8	10	16	-6	4
9	Cherno More Varna	9	10	19	-9	5
10	Slavia Sofia	9	8	6	+2	11
11	Dunav Ruse	9	8	17	-9	4
12	Septemvri Sofia	8	7	13	-6	8
13	Botev Vratsa	9	7	17	-10	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	9	4	12	-8	6