Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul Statistics & Analysis

U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Oct 12, 2026 - 01:15
3 0.95
3 1.55
xG Accuracy: 38%
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cruz Azul Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13662813

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Cruz Azul
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.26 percentage points on U.N.A.M. - Pumas (1X2) between PRE10 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Cruz Azul (1X2) by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (1X2) 23.1 32.5 -9.5
Draw (1X2) 28.1 25.9 +2.2
Cruz Azul (1X2) 48.8 41.5 +7.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.8% on Cruz Azul (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 41.5%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (1X2) 3.0 2.87 +1.3
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 -0.1
Cruz Azul (1X2) 2.2 2.25 -1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-12 01:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.1% · Draw 28.1% · Away 48.8%
  • xG (showing): U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0.95 — Cruz Azul 1.55 (total xG ≈ 2.5)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +10.0 pts · Est. EV: +19.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Leon 10 5 2 3 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 8
18 FC Juarez 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Club America 9 21 10 +11 20
3 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Leon 10 14 11 +3 17
9 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
10 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
11 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
12 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Necaxa 10 12 20 -8 8
15 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
16 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
17 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
18 FC Juarez 10 7 25 -18 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cruz Azul 10 14.1 8.8 +5.3 16
2 Club Tijuana 9 9.5 4.6 +4.9 14
3 Club America 9 11.0 6.5 +4.5 20
4 Tigres UANL 10 11.5 8.6 +2.9 10
5 Guadalajara Chivas 10 10.2 7.5 +2.7 18
6 Monterrey 9 10.2 7.5 +2.7 13
7 Necaxa 10 10.0 7.3 +2.7 8
8 Toluca 10 10.2 7.9 +2.3 20
9 Santos Laguna 10 12.6 10.4 +2.2 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 10.2 9.6 +0.6 17
11 Leon 10 10.6 10.1 +0.5 17
12 Puebla 10 8.0 10.8 -2.8 14
13 Atlas 10 8.4 11.6 -3.2 17
14 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 7.7 10.9 -3.2 12
15 Pachuca 10 8.5 12.5 -4.0 12
16 Atlante FC 10 7.1 11.8 -4.7 11
17 Atletico San Luis 10 8.6 13.6 -5.0 12
18 FC Juarez 10 6.0 14.7 -8.7 3
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