Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / Pachuca vs Necaxa

Pachuca vs Necaxa Statistics & Analysis

Pachuca Pachuca
Oct 11, 2026 - 23:10
3 1.13
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 37%
Necaxa Necaxa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Necaxa Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13240272

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Necaxa (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Necaxa (1X2) by about 18.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pachuca (1X2) 31.7 56.4 -24.6
Draw (1X2) 31.2 24.9 +6.3
Necaxa (1X2) 37.0 18.7 +18.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Necaxa (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.7%. The difference — about 18.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Pachuca (1X2) 1.66 1.66 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Necaxa (1X2) 5.0 5.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: Pachuca vs Necaxa
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 23:10:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.7% · Draw 31.2% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Pachuca 1.13 — Necaxa 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.37)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 57.8% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +15.2 pts · Est. EV: +31.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.8% · No 50.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Leon 10 5 2 3 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 8
18 FC Juarez 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Club America 9 21 10 +11 20
3 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Leon 10 14 11 +3 17
9 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
10 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
11 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
12 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Necaxa 10 12 20 -8 8
15 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
16 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
17 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
18 FC Juarez 10 7 25 -18 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cruz Azul 10 14.1 8.8 +5.3 16
2 Club Tijuana 9 9.5 4.6 +4.9 14
3 Club America 9 11.0 6.5 +4.5 20
4 Tigres UANL 10 11.5 8.6 +2.9 10
5 Guadalajara Chivas 10 10.2 7.5 +2.7 18
6 Monterrey 9 10.2 7.5 +2.7 13
7 Necaxa 10 10.0 7.3 +2.7 8
8 Toluca 10 10.2 7.9 +2.3 20
9 Santos Laguna 10 12.6 10.4 +2.2 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 10.2 9.6 +0.6 17
11 Leon 10 10.6 10.1 +0.5 17
12 Puebla 10 8.0 10.8 -2.8 14
13 Atlas 10 8.4 11.6 -3.2 17
14 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 7.7 10.9 -3.2 12
15 Pachuca 10 8.5 12.5 -4.0 12
16 Atlante FC 10 7.1 11.8 -4.7 11
17 Atletico San Luis 10 8.6 13.6 -5.0 12
18 FC Juarez 10 6.0 14.7 -8.7 3
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