Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana

FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana Statistics & Analysis

FC Juarez FC Juarez
Oct 10, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.77
1 2.06
xG Accuracy: 60%
Club Tijuana Club Tijuana
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Club Tijuana Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13253749

Closing Odds 2.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · FC Juarez 1–1 Club Tijuana
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Club Tijuana (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Club Tijuana (1X2) by about 6.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Juarez (1X2) 32.8 34.1 -1.3
Draw (1X2) 23.0 28.4 -5.4
Club Tijuana (1X2) 44.2 37.5 +6.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 44.2% on Club Tijuana (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 37.5%. The difference — about 6.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Juarez (1X2) 2.75 2.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Club Tijuana (1X2) 2.5 2.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.8% · Draw 23.0% · Away 44.2%
  • xG (showing): FC Juarez 1.77 — Club Tijuana 2.06 (total xG ≈ 3.83)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.6% · Implied: 50.8% · Probability edge: +22.8 pts · Est. EV: +41.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.4% · No 26.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Leon 10 5 2 3 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 8
18 FC Juarez 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Club America 9 21 10 +11 20
3 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Leon 10 14 11 +3 17
9 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
10 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
11 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
12 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Necaxa 10 12 20 -8 8
15 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
16 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
17 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
18 FC Juarez 10 7 25 -18 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cruz Azul 10 14.1 8.8 +5.3 16
2 Club Tijuana 9 9.5 4.6 +4.9 14
3 Club America 9 11.0 6.5 +4.5 20
4 Tigres UANL 10 11.5 8.6 +2.9 10
5 Guadalajara Chivas 10 10.2 7.5 +2.7 18
6 Monterrey 9 10.2 7.5 +2.7 13
7 Necaxa 10 10.0 7.3 +2.7 8
8 Toluca 10 10.2 7.9 +2.3 20
9 Santos Laguna 10 12.6 10.4 +2.2 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 10.2 9.6 +0.6 17
11 Leon 10 10.6 10.1 +0.5 17
12 Puebla 10 8.0 10.8 -2.8 14
13 Atlas 10 8.4 11.6 -3.2 17
14 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 7.7 10.9 -3.2 12
15 Pachuca 10 8.5 12.5 -4.0 12
16 Atlante FC 10 7.1 11.8 -4.7 11
17 Atletico San Luis 10 8.6 13.6 -5.0 12
18 FC Juarez 10 6.0 14.7 -8.7 3
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