Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Atletico San Luis

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Atletico San Luis Statistics & Analysis

U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Sep 27, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.22
3 1.13
xG Accuracy: 48%
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas Atletico San Luis ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10108758

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atletico San Luis win · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–3 Atletico San Luis
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.77 percentage points on U.N.A.M. - Pumas (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (1X2) 36.5 48.1 -11.6
Draw (1X2) 31.4 25.7 +5.7
Atletico San Luis (1X2) 32.1 26.2 +5.9
Over 2.5 goals 41.7 55.0 -13.3
Under 2.5 goals 58.3 45.0 +13.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 58.3% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.0%. The difference — about 13.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (1X2) 2.04 2.01 +0.8
Draw (1X2) 3.7 3.77 -0.5
Atletico San Luis (1X2) 3.64 3.69 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.76 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 2.12 2.15 -0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Atletico San Luis
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 31.4% · Away 32.1%
  • xG (showing): U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.22 — Atletico San Luis 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.35)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 58.3% · Implied: 45.7% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +24.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.4% · No 50.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
3 Club America 8 5 2 1 17
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
6 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
7 Leon 9 4 2 3 14
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 9 2 2 5 8
18 FC Juarez 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
3 Club America 8 17 8 +9 17
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
9 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
10 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
11 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
12 Leon 9 12 10 +2 14
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
15 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
17 Necaxa 9 10 16 -6 8
18 FC Juarez 9 6 23 -17 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Club Tijuana 9 8.2 3.2 +5.0 14
2 Cruz Azul 10 11.3 7.5 +3.8 16
3 Monterrey 9 9.8 6.2 +3.6 13
4 Club America 8 9.7 6.1 +3.6 17
5 Toluca 10 8.9 6.1 +2.8 20
6 Tigres UANL 10 9.7 7.3 +2.4 10
7 Guadalajara Chivas 10 8.1 5.8 +2.3 18
8 Necaxa 9 6.8 6.1 +0.7 8
9 Santos Laguna 10 10.1 9.7 +0.4 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 8.6 8.8 -0.2 17
11 Leon 9 8.7 9.4 -0.7 14
12 Puebla 10 7.3 8.9 -1.6 14
13 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 6.4 8.0 -1.6 12
14 Pachuca 10 7.4 9.2 -1.8 12
15 Atlas 10 6.6 9.5 -2.9 17
16 Atletico San Luis 10 7.8 11.1 -3.3 12
17 Atlante FC 10 6.3 10.1 -3.8 11
18 FC Juarez 9 4.7 13.4 -8.7 3
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