Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs Toluca

Cruz Azul vs Toluca Statistics & Analysis

Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
Sep 26, 2026 - 22:50
3 1.40
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 40%
Toluca Toluca
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cruz Azul Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10121212

Closing Odds 2.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Cruz Azul 3–3 Toluca
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Cruz Azul (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cruz Azul (1X2) 38.0 35.8 +2.3
Draw (1X2) 29.0 28.1 +0.9
Toluca (1X2) 33.0 36.2 -3.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.4 60.4 -10.0
Under 2.5 goals 49.6 39.6 +10.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.6%. The difference — about 10.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cruz Azul (1X2) 2.71 2.71 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.45 3.45 0.0
Toluca (1X2) 2.68 2.68 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.44 2.44 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: Cruz Azul vs Toluca
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 22:50:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Cruz Azul 1.4 — Toluca 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.69)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.6% · Implied: 40.5% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +19.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
3 Club America 8 5 2 1 17
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
6 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
7 Leon 9 4 2 3 14
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 9 2 2 5 8
18 FC Juarez 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
3 Club America 8 17 8 +9 17
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
9 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
10 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
11 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
12 Leon 9 12 10 +2 14
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
15 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
17 Necaxa 9 10 16 -6 8
18 FC Juarez 9 6 23 -17 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Club Tijuana 9 8.2 3.2 +5.0 14
2 Cruz Azul 10 11.3 7.5 +3.8 16
3 Monterrey 9 9.8 6.2 +3.6 13
4 Club America 8 9.7 6.1 +3.6 17
5 Toluca 10 8.9 6.1 +2.8 20
6 Tigres UANL 10 9.7 7.3 +2.4 10
7 Guadalajara Chivas 10 8.1 5.8 +2.3 18
8 Necaxa 9 6.8 6.1 +0.7 8
9 Santos Laguna 10 10.1 9.7 +0.4 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 8.6 8.8 -0.2 17
11 Leon 9 8.7 9.4 -0.7 14
12 Puebla 10 7.3 8.9 -1.6 14
13 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 6.4 8.0 -1.6 12
14 Pachuca 10 7.4 9.2 -1.8 12
15 Atlas 10 6.6 9.5 -2.9 17
16 Atletico San Luis 10 7.8 11.1 -3.3 12
17 Atlante FC 10 6.3 10.1 -3.8 11
18 FC Juarez 9 4.7 13.4 -8.7 3
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