Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / Toluca vs Atlas

Toluca vs Atlas Statistics & Analysis

Toluca Toluca
Sep 12, 2026 - 23:05
5 1.61
2 0.97
xG Accuracy: 30%
Atlas Atlas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Toluca Toluca ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7471289

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Toluca win · Toluca 5–2 Atlas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: Toluca vs Atlas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.8% · Draw 28.0% · Away 21.2%
  • xG (showing): Toluca 1.61 — Atlas 0.97 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 52.3% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +22.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.2% · No 48.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
3 Club America 8 5 2 1 17
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
6 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
7 Leon 9 4 2 3 14
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 9 2 2 5 8
18 FC Juarez 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
3 Club America 8 17 8 +9 17
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
9 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
10 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
11 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
12 Leon 9 12 10 +2 14
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
15 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
17 Necaxa 9 10 16 -6 8
18 FC Juarez 9 6 23 -17 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Club Tijuana 9 8.2 3.2 +5.0 14
2 Cruz Azul 10 11.3 7.5 +3.8 16
3 Monterrey 9 9.8 6.2 +3.6 13
4 Club America 8 9.7 6.1 +3.6 17
5 Toluca 10 8.9 6.1 +2.8 20
6 Tigres UANL 10 9.7 7.3 +2.4 10
7 Guadalajara Chivas 10 8.1 5.8 +2.3 18
8 Necaxa 9 6.8 6.1 +0.7 8
9 Santos Laguna 10 10.1 9.7 +0.4 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 8.6 8.8 -0.2 17
11 Leon 9 8.7 9.4 -0.7 14
12 Puebla 10 7.3 8.9 -1.6 14
13 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 6.4 8.0 -1.6 12
14 Pachuca 10 7.4 9.2 -1.8 12
15 Atlas 10 6.6 9.5 -2.9 17
16 Atletico San Luis 10 7.8 11.1 -3.3 12
17 Atlante FC 10 6.3 10.1 -3.8 11
18 FC Juarez 9 4.7 13.4 -8.7 3
Liga MX Mexico. Liga MX Predictions