Statistics / Football / Kenya. Super League / Nzoia Sugar vs Kibera Black Stars

Nzoia Sugar vs Kibera Black Stars Statistics & Analysis

Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.08
0 0.86
xG Accuracy: 77%
Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1818594

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nzoia Sugar win · Nzoia Sugar 1–0 Kibera Black Stars
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Nzoia Sugar vs Kibera Black Stars
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 34.6% · Away 26.9%
  • xG (showing): Nzoia Sugar 1.08 — Kibera Black Stars 0.86 (total xG ≈ 1.94)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Migori Youth 38 25 6 7 81
2 3K 38 23 8 7 77
3 Mombasa Elite 38 24 4 10 76
4 Equity Bank 38 21 11 6 74
5 MOFA 38 16 16 6 64
6 Fortune Sacco 38 18 9 11 63
7 Naivas 38 17 10 11 61
8 Talanta 38 16 9 13 57
9 Kibera Black Stars 38 15 8 15 53
10 Soy United 38 14 10 14 52
11 Nzoia Sugar 38 12 14 12 50
12 Gucha Stars 38 12 8 18 44
13 Luanda Villa 38 12 7 19 43
14 Kabati Youth FC 38 10 9 19 39
15 Kisumu All Stars 38 10 9 19 39
16 Nairobi City Stars 38 9 12 17 39
17 Darajani Gogo 38 10 8 20 38
18 MCF 38 9 10 19 34
19 Vihiga United FC 38 9 9 20 30
20 Mwatate United 38 6 7 25 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 3K 38 62 26 +36 77
2 Fortune Sacco 38 61 41 +20 63
3 Migori Youth 38 57 29 +28 81
4 Equity Bank 38 56 28 +28 74
5 Talanta 38 53 41 +12 57
6 MOFA 38 51 30 +21 64
7 Mombasa Elite 38 51 32 +19 76
8 Naivas 38 47 30 +17 61
9 Nzoia Sugar 38 37 36 +1 50
10 Gucha Stars 38 35 41 -6 44
11 Kibera Black Stars 38 32 33 -1 53
12 Nairobi City Stars 38 32 44 -12 39
13 Kabati Youth FC 38 32 52 -20 39
14 Soy United 38 31 27 +4 52
15 Luanda Villa 38 30 51 -21 43
16 Vihiga United FC 38 29 55 -26 30
17 Darajani Gogo 38 27 48 -21 38
18 Mwatate United 38 27 64 -37 25
19 MCF 38 24 42 -18 34
20 Kisumu All Stars 38 23 47 -24 39