Statistics / Football / Vietnam. V.League 1 / Pho Hien vs Bắc Ninh

Pho Hien vs Bắc Ninh Statistics & Analysis

Pho Hien Pho Hien
Jun 12, 2026 - 11:00
1(4) 1.32
1(5) 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
Bắc Ninh
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pho Hien Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1472326

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Pho Hien 1–1 Bắc Ninh
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bắc Ninh (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bắc Ninh (1X2) by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pho Hien (1X2) 42.2 56.3 -14.2
Draw (1X2) 28.7 24.2 +4.5
Bắc Ninh (1X2) 29.1 19.4 +9.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.8 +2.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.2 -2.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.1% on Bắc Ninh (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.4%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Pho Hien (1X2) 1.65 1.65 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
Bắc Ninh (1X2) 4.78 4.78 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.74 1.74 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: V.League 1
  • Fixture: Pho Hien vs Bắc Ninh
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-12 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.2% · Draw 28.7% · Away 29.1%
  • xG (showing): Pho Hien 1.32 — Bắc Ninh 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.6% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
V.League 1 V.League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Công An Nhân Dân 26 20 4 2 64
2 Viettel 26 15 9 2 54
3 Phu Dong 26 15 6 5 51
4 Ha Noi 26 14 4 8 46
5 Ho Chi Minh City 26 10 6 10 36
6 Nam Dinh 26 9 8 9 35
7 Hai Phong 26 9 5 12 32
8 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 26 7 8 11 29
9 Song Lam Nghe An 26 7 6 13 27
10 Hoang Anh Gia Lai 26 6 8 12 26
11 Thanh Hóa 26 5 10 11 25
12 Da Nang 26 5 9 12 24
13 Binh Duong 26 6 6 14 24
14 Pho Hien 26 5 9 12 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Công An Nhân Dân 26 58 22 +36 64
2 Phu Dong 26 53 31 +22 51
3 Ha Noi 26 48 30 +18 46
4 Viettel 26 39 21 +18 54
5 Hai Phong 26 37 36 +1 32
6 Nam Dinh 26 33 32 +1 35
7 Da Nang 26 33 39 -6 24
8 Binh Duong 26 31 43 -12 24
9 Ho Chi Minh City 26 28 36 -8 36
10 Song Lam Nghe An 26 27 40 -13 27
11 Thanh Hóa 26 26 38 -12 25
12 Pho Hien 26 26 44 -18 24
13 Hoang Anh Gia Lai 26 24 37 -13 26
14 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 26 15 29 -14 29