Statistics / Football / Brazil. Estadual Junior U20 / Grêmio U20 vs Internacional U20

Grêmio U20 vs Internacional U20 Statistics & Analysis

Grêmio U20 Grêmio U20
Jun 14, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Internacional U20 Internacional U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Internacional U20 Internacional U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 12:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3173360

Closing Odds 2.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Internacional U20 win · Grêmio U20 0–1 Internacional U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.27 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Internacional U20 (1X2) by about 2.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Grêmio U20 (1X2) 34.9 34.2 +0.7
Draw (1X2) 29.3 32.2 -3.0
Internacional U20 (1X2) 35.9 33.6 +2.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.1 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.9 -0.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.9% on Internacional U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.6%. The difference — about 2.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Grêmio U20 (1X2) 2.47 2.63 -1.8
Draw (1X2) 3.07 2.79 +3.3
Internacional U20 (1X2) 2.54 2.68 -1.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.81 1.94 -3.2
Under 2.5 goals 1.91 1.8 +3.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Estadual Junior U20
  • Fixture: Grêmio U20 vs Internacional U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 35.9%
  • xG (showing): Grêmio U20 1.28 — Internacional U20 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Estadual Junior U20 Estadual Junior U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional U20 5 4 0 1 12
2 Ypiranga Erechim U20 6 3 2 1 11
3 Novo Hamburgo U20 6 3 2 1 11
4 Caxias U20 5 2 1 2 7
5 Esportivo U20 6 1 2 3 5
6 SC Gaucho RS U20 6 0 4 2 4
7 Apafut U20 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Internacional U20 5 15 3 +12 12
2 Ypiranga Erechim U20 6 12 6 +6 11
3 Novo Hamburgo U20 6 10 9 +1 11
4 Caxias U20 5 8 7 +1 7
5 SC Gaucho RS U20 6 5 9 -4 4
6 Esportivo U20 6 5 12 -7 5
7 Apafut U20 6 5 14 -9 4