Statistics / Football / Brazil. Estadual Junior U20 / São José PA U20 vs Juventude U20

São José PA U20 vs Juventude U20 Statistics & Analysis

São José PA U20 São José PA U20
Jun 13, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 85%
Juventude U20 Juventude U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 São José PA U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 19:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2533994

Closing Odds 2.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · São José PA U20 1–1 Juventude U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices São José PA U20 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 3.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
São José PA U20 (1X2) 37.3 36.0 +1.3
Draw (1X2) 29.1 29.1 +0.0
Juventude U20 (1X2) 33.6 34.9 -1.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.2 -3.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.8 +3.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 48.8%. The difference — about 3.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
São José PA U20 (1X2) 2.47 2.47 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Juventude U20 (1X2) 2.55 2.55 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.81 1.81 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.9 1.9 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Estadual Junior U20
  • Fixture: São José PA U20 vs Juventude U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.3% · Draw 29.1% · Away 33.6%
  • xG (showing): São José PA U20 1.36 — Juventude U20 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Estadual Junior U20 Estadual Junior U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional U20 5 4 0 1 12
2 Ypiranga Erechim U20 6 3 2 1 11
3 Novo Hamburgo U20 6 3 2 1 11
4 Caxias U20 5 2 1 2 7
5 Esportivo U20 6 1 2 3 5
6 SC Gaucho RS U20 6 0 4 2 4
7 Apafut U20 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Internacional U20 5 15 3 +12 12
2 Ypiranga Erechim U20 6 12 6 +6 11
3 Novo Hamburgo U20 6 10 9 +1 11
4 Caxias U20 5 8 7 +1 7
5 SC Gaucho RS U20 6 5 9 -4 4
6 Esportivo U20 6 5 12 -7 5
7 Apafut U20 6 5 14 -9 4