Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca C / Barra Mansa vs Cardoso Moreira

Barra Mansa vs Cardoso Moreira Statistics & Analysis

Barra Mansa Barra Mansa
Jul 03, 2026 - 17:45
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
⚽
Cardoso Moreira
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barra Mansa Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1606121

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Barra Mansa 2–2 Cardoso Moreira
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Carioca C
  • Fixture: Barra Mansa vs Cardoso Moreira
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-03 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Barra Mansa 1.32 — Cardoso Moreira 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca C Carioca C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cardoso Moreira 6 6 0 0 18
2 Campos AA 6 4 2 0 14
3 Tigres do Brasil 6 4 1 1 13
4 Barra Mansa 6 4 0 2 12
5 Brescia Clube 6 3 1 2 10
6 Búzios 6 2 3 1 9
7 EC Resende 6 3 0 3 9
8 Ceres 6 3 0 3 9
9 Uni Souza 6 2 1 3 7
10 Mageense 6 2 1 3 7
11 Uniao Central 6 2 1 3 7
12 Itaborai Profute 6 1 3 2 6
13 Independente RJ 6 1 2 3 5
14 CAAC Brasil 6 1 1 4 4
15 EC Vera Cruz 6 1 0 5 3
16 Barcelona RJ 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Campos AA 6 12 5 +7 14
2 Cardoso Moreira 6 11 0 +11 18
3 Tigres do Brasil 6 10 5 +5 13
4 EC Resende 6 10 9 +1 9
5 Ceres 6 10 11 -1 9
6 Uniao Central 6 10 11 -1 7
7 Uni Souza 6 9 7 +2 7
8 Itaborai Profute 6 9 9 0 6
9 Brescia Clube 6 8 4 +4 10
10 Búzios 6 8 6 +2 9
11 Barra Mansa 6 7 3 +4 12
12 EC Vera Cruz 6 7 14 -7 3
13 Mageense 6 6 13 -7 7
14 CAAC Brasil 6 6 13 -7 4
15 Independente RJ 6 4 6 -2 5
16 Barcelona RJ 6 3 14 -11 3