Statistics / Football / Brazil. Copa Espírito Santo / Porto Vitória vs Rio Branco-VN

Porto Vitória vs Rio Branco-VN Statistics & Analysis

Porto Vitória Porto Vitória
Jun 20, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.45
3 1.15
xG Accuracy: 39%
Rio Branco-VN Rio Branco-VN
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Porto Vitória Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 11:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2605137

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Porto Vitória 3–3 Rio Branco-VN
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Rio Branco-VN (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Porto Vitória (1X2) 45.2 51.0 -5.7
Draw (1X2) 29.2 29.0 +0.2
Rio Branco-VN (1X2) 25.5 20.0 +5.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 37.6 +10.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 62.4 -10.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.6%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Porto Vitória (1X2) 1.74 1.74 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Rio Branco-VN (1X2) 4.43 4.43 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.41 2.41 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa Espírito Santo
  • Fixture: Porto Vitória vs Rio Branco-VN
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.2% · Draw 29.2% · Away 25.5%
  • xG (showing): Porto Vitória 1.45 — Rio Branco-VN 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.9% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +12.3 pts · Est. EV: +21.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Copa Espírito Santo Copa Espírito Santo — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Porto Vitória 7 5 1 1 16
2 Vitória ES 7 4 1 2 13
3 Vilavelhense 7 4 1 2 13
4 Rio Branco-VN 7 4 1 2 13
5 Rio Branco ES 7 3 2 2 11
6 Sport Brasil ES 7 2 0 5 6
7 Serra Talhada 7 1 1 5 4
8 Audax São Mateus 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vitória ES 7 16 8 +8 13
2 Porto Vitória 7 14 5 +9 16
3 Rio Branco ES 7 11 7 +4 11
4 Vilavelhense 7 10 8 +2 13
5 Rio Branco-VN 7 6 4 +2 13
6 Serra Talhada 7 6 10 -4 4
7 Sport Brasil ES 7 3 13 -10 6
8 Audax São Mateus 7 2 13 -11 4