Statistics / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Walsall vs Aston Villa

Walsall vs Aston Villa Statistics & Analysis

Walsall Walsall
Jul 21, 2026 - 18:30
0 1.31
5 1.29
xG Accuracy: 25%
Aston Villa Aston Villa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Walsall Aston Villa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1764379

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aston Villa win · Walsall 0–5 Aston Villa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Walsall vs Aston Villa
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-21 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Walsall 1.31 — Aston Villa 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.9% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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