Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie A / Genoa vs Fiorentina

Genoa vs Fiorentina Statistics & Analysis

Genoa Genoa
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.05
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Fiorentina Fiorentina
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fiorentina Genoa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13207448

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Genoa win · Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Genoa (1X2) 29.0 29.4 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 30.7 29.7 +1.0
Fiorentina (1X2) 40.3 40.9 -0.5

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betinasia

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Genoa (1X2) 3.33 3.33 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Fiorentina (1X2) 2.4 2.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Genoa vs Fiorentina
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.0% · Draw 30.7% · Away 40.3%
  • xG (showing): Genoa 1.05 — Fiorentina 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.3)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 59.6% · Implied: 54.2% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter 5 15 8 +7 13
2 AS Roma 5 14 3 +11 13
3 AC Milan 5 10 4 +6 11
4 Frosinone 5 9 4 +5 10
5 Como 5 9 6 +3 10
6 Sassuolo 5 9 9 0 7
7 Lazio 5 8 3 +5 13
8 Juventus 5 8 4 +4 10
9 Udinese 5 8 11 -3 4
10 Monza 5 8 12 -4 4
11 Napoli 5 7 6 +1 7
12 Fiorentina 5 6 12 -6 4
13 Cagliari 5 5 2 +3 12
14 Atalanta 5 5 7 -2 6
15 Torino 5 5 8 -3 4
16 Lecce 5 5 10 -5 6
17 Parma 5 4 7 -3 4
18 Venezia 5 4 13 -9 0
19 Bologna 5 3 6 -3 2
20 Genoa 5 3 10 -7 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Inter 5 12.8 4.6 +8.2 13
2 AS Roma 5 10.8 5.6 +5.2 13
3 Napoli 5 8.6 3.9 +4.7 7
4 Monza 5 10.7 6.9 +3.8 4
5 Juventus 5 6.0 2.2 +3.8 10
6 AC Milan 5 6.8 4.0 +2.8 11
7 Como 5 9.5 7.8 +1.7 10
8 Sassuolo 5 7.9 6.2 +1.7 7
9 Lazio 5 9.2 8.0 +1.2 13
10 Bologna 5 7.3 6.3 +1.0 2
11 Fiorentina 5 7.4 7.4 0.0 4
12 Genoa 5 5.3 5.7 -0.4 1
13 Torino 5 3.8 5.2 -1.4 4
14 Udinese 5 6.7 9.2 -2.5 4
15 Cagliari 5 5.2 8.2 -3.0 12
16 Venezia 5 7.7 11.2 -3.5 0
17 Atalanta 5 2.7 6.5 -3.8 6
18 Frosinone 5 8.4 13.3 -4.9 10
19 Parma 5 3.6 10.8 -7.2 4
20 Lecce 5 6.0 13.3 -7.3 6
Serie A Italy. Serie A Predictions