Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie A / Lecce vs Monza

Lecce vs Monza Statistics & Analysis

Lecce Lecce
Sep 13, 2026 - 13:00
3 0.81
2 2.00
xG Accuracy: 55%
Monza Monza
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Monza Lecce ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7432964

Closing Odds 2.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lecce win · Lecce 3–2 Monza
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.93 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Monza (1X2) by about 16.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lecce (1X2) 20.9 33.7 -12.8
Draw (1X2) 27.8 31.4 -3.6
Monza (1X2) 51.3 34.9 +16.4
Over 2.5 goals 53.3 42.9 +10.4
Under 2.5 goals 46.7 57.1 -10.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.3% on Monza (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 34.9%. The difference — about 16.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lecce (1X2) 2.95 2.89 +0.7
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 -0.0
Monza (1X2) 2.74 2.79 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 2.32 2.26 +0.9
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.7 -0.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Lecce vs Monza
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 20.9% · Draw 27.8% · Away 51.3%
  • xG (showing): Lecce 0.81 — Monza 2.0 (total xG ≈ 2.81)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 53.3% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +10.5 pts · Est. EV: +22.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Lecce & Monza!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter 5 15 8 +7 13
2 AS Roma 5 14 3 +11 13
3 AC Milan 5 10 4 +6 11
4 Frosinone 5 9 4 +5 10
5 Como 5 9 6 +3 10
6 Sassuolo 5 9 9 0 7
7 Lazio 5 8 3 +5 13
8 Juventus 5 8 4 +4 10
9 Udinese 5 8 11 -3 4
10 Monza 5 8 12 -4 4
11 Napoli 5 7 6 +1 7
12 Fiorentina 5 6 12 -6 4
13 Cagliari 5 5 2 +3 12
14 Atalanta 5 5 7 -2 6
15 Torino 5 5 8 -3 4
16 Lecce 5 5 10 -5 6
17 Parma 5 4 7 -3 4
18 Venezia 5 4 13 -9 0
19 Bologna 5 3 6 -3 2
20 Genoa 5 3 10 -7 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Inter 5 10.3 4.3 +6.0 13
2 AS Roma 5 9.7 4.2 +5.5 13
3 Juventus 5 6.0 2.2 +3.8 10
4 Monza 5 8.8 5.3 +3.5 4
5 AC Milan 5 6.8 4.0 +2.8 11
6 Napoli 5 5.4 2.9 +2.5 7
7 Sassuolo 5 7.9 6.2 +1.7 7
8 Lazio 5 7.6 6.1 +1.5 13
9 Como 5 8.0 6.7 +1.3 10
10 Bologna 5 5.8 5.0 +0.8 2
11 Fiorentina 5 6.5 6.0 +0.5 4
12 Genoa 5 3.9 4.7 -0.8 1
13 Torino 5 3.8 5.2 -1.4 4
14 Udinese 5 6.7 9.2 -2.5 4
15 Frosinone 5 7.4 10.1 -2.7 10
16 Cagliari 5 5.2 8.2 -3.0 12
17 Venezia 5 7.7 11.2 -3.5 0
18 Atalanta 5 2.7 6.5 -3.8 6
19 Parma 5 3.2 8.3 -5.1 4
20 Lecce 5 4.7 11.8 -7.1 6