Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie A / Como vs Parma

Como vs Parma Statistics & Analysis

Como Como
Sep 14, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.65
1 0.71
xG Accuracy: 84%
Parma Parma
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Como Como ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7572247

Closing Odds 1.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Como win · Como 2–1 Parma
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Parma (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Como (1X2) 58.5 78.4 -19.9
Draw (1X2) 27.1 14.5 +12.6
Parma (1X2) 14.4 7.0 +7.3
Over 2.5 goals 42.0 60.6 -18.6
Under 2.5 goals 58.0 39.4 +18.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 58.0% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.4%. The difference — about 18.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Como (1X2) 1.23 1.23 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.65 6.65 0.0
Parma (1X2) 13.69 13.69 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.45 2.45 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Como vs Parma
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 58.5% · Draw 27.1% · Away 14.4%
  • xG (showing): Como 1.65 — Parma 0.71 (total xG ≈ 2.36)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Como & Parma!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 12
5 Como 4 3 1 0 10
6 AC Milan 4 2 2 0 8
7 Frosinone 4 2 1 1 7
8 Juventus 4 2 1 1 7
9 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 7
10 Napoli 4 2 0 2 6
11 Atalanta 4 2 0 2 6
12 Lecce 4 2 0 2 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 4
15 Monza 5 1 1 3 4
16 Fiorentina 4 1 0 3 3
17 Bologna 5 0 2 3 2
18 Parma 4 0 1 3 1
19 Genoa 4 0 1 3 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter 5 15 8 +7 13
2 AS Roma 5 14 3 +11 13
3 Como 4 9 4 +5 10
4 Sassuolo 5 9 9 0 7
5 Lazio 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Udinese 5 8 11 -3 4
7 Monza 5 8 12 -4 4
8 AC Milan 4 7 4 +3 8
9 Frosinone 4 7 4 +3 7
10 Juventus 4 6 4 +2 7
11 Napoli 4 6 5 +1 6
12 Cagliari 5 5 2 +3 12
13 Atalanta 4 5 5 0 6
14 Lecce 4 5 7 -2 6
15 Torino 5 5 8 -3 4
16 Fiorentina 4 5 11 -6 3
17 Venezia 5 4 13 -9 0
18 Bologna 5 3 6 -3 2
19 Parma 4 2 6 -4 1
20 Genoa 4 2 8 -6 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Inter 5 10.3 4.3 +6.0 13
2 AS Roma 5 9.7 4.2 +5.5 13
3 Juventus 4 6.0 2.2 +3.8 7
4 Monza 5 8.8 5.3 +3.5 4
5 AC Milan 4 6.8 4.0 +2.8 8
6 Napoli 4 5.4 2.9 +2.5 6
7 Sassuolo 5 7.9 6.2 +1.7 7
8 Lazio 5 7.6 6.1 +1.5 13
9 Como 4 8.0 6.7 +1.3 10
10 Bologna 5 5.8 5.0 +0.8 2
11 Fiorentina 4 6.5 6.0 +0.5 3
12 Genoa 4 3.9 4.7 -0.8 1
13 Torino 5 3.8 5.2 -1.4 4
14 Udinese 5 6.7 9.2 -2.5 4
15 Frosinone 4 7.4 10.1 -2.7 7
16 Cagliari 5 5.2 8.2 -3.0 12
17 Venezia 5 7.7 11.2 -3.5 0
18 Atalanta 4 2.7 6.5 -3.8 6
19 Parma 4 3.2 8.3 -5.1 1
20 Lecce 4 4.7 11.8 -7.1 6