Statistics / Football / Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur / Control Orientado vs Ezeiza

Control Orientado vs Ezeiza Statistics & Analysis

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Control Orientado
Aug 30, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ezeiza Ezeiza
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ezeiza Ezeiza ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 00:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5725516

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ezeiza win · Control Orientado 0–1 Ezeiza
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Torneo Promocional Amateur
  • Fixture: Control Orientado vs Ezeiza
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Control Orientado 1.24 — Ezeiza 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Torneo Promocional Amateur Torneo Promocional Amateur — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SAT Moreno 14 11 0 3 33
2 Defensores Glew 14 10 2 2 32
3 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 10 2 2 32
4 Barrancas UMET 16 9 4 3 31
5 Uribelarrea 16 8 5 3 29
6 Ezeiza 16 7 5 4 26
7 Buenos Aires City 16 7 4 5 25
8 Nautico Hacoaj 14 7 3 4 24
9 Belgrano Zarate 16 5 7 4 22
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 5 3 8 18
11 Control Orientado 16 5 3 8 18
12 Estrella de Berisso 14 4 3 7 15
13 Everton La Plata 16 3 5 8 14
14 Las Mandarinas 16 4 2 10 14
15 Atletico Pilar 14 2 3 9 9
16 Juventud de Bernal 14 2 2 10 8
17 Provincial 14 2 1 11 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Defensores Glew 14 37 8 +29 32
2 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 32 10 +22 32
3 SAT Moreno 14 24 9 +15 33
4 Nautico Hacoaj 14 24 11 +13 24
5 Uribelarrea 16 19 11 +8 29
6 Buenos Aires City 16 18 13 +5 25
7 Ezeiza 16 18 17 +1 26
8 Estrella de Berisso 14 18 24 -6 15
9 Barrancas UMET 16 17 9 +8 31
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 17 20 -3 18
11 Control Orientado 16 15 20 -5 18
12 Las Mandarinas 16 12 20 -8 14
13 Belgrano Zarate 16 11 10 +1 22
14 Atletico Pilar 14 11 24 -13 9
15 Juventud de Bernal 14 10 41 -31 8
16 Provincial 14 9 38 -29 7
17 Everton La Plata 16 7 14 -7 14