Statistics / Football / Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur / Deportivo Metalurgico vs Estrella de Berisso

Deportivo Metalurgico vs Estrella de Berisso Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Metalurgico Deportivo Metalurgico
Jul 26, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.56
0 1.04
xG Accuracy: 64%
Estrella de Berisso Estrella de Berisso
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Deportivo Metalurgico Deportivo Metalurgico ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456859

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Deportivo Metalurgico win · Deportivo Metalurgico 1–0 Estrella de Berisso
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Estrella de Berisso (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Estrella de Berisso (1X2) by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Metalurgico (1X2) 50.0 61.1 -11.1
Draw (1X2) 28.0 24.1 +3.9
Estrella de Berisso (1X2) 22.0 14.8 +7.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.2 +5.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.8 -5.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 22.0% on Estrella de Berisso (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.8%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Metalurgico (1X2) 1.45 1.45 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.68 3.68 0.0
Estrella de Berisso (1X2) 6.0 6.0 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Torneo Promocional Amateur
  • Fixture: Deportivo Metalurgico vs Estrella de Berisso
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 28.0% · Away 22.0%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Metalurgico 1.56 — Estrella de Berisso 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 52.6% · Implied: 39.6% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +23.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Torneo Promocional Amateur Torneo Promocional Amateur — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SAT Moreno 14 11 0 3 33
2 Defensores Glew 14 10 2 2 32
3 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 10 2 2 32
4 Barrancas UMET 16 9 4 3 31
5 Uribelarrea 16 8 5 3 29
6 Ezeiza 16 7 5 4 26
7 Buenos Aires City 16 7 4 5 25
8 Nautico Hacoaj 14 7 3 4 24
9 Belgrano Zarate 16 5 7 4 22
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 5 3 8 18
11 Control Orientado 16 5 3 8 18
12 Estrella de Berisso 14 4 3 7 15
13 Everton La Plata 16 3 5 8 14
14 Las Mandarinas 16 4 2 10 14
15 Atletico Pilar 14 2 3 9 9
16 Juventud de Bernal 14 2 2 10 8
17 Provincial 14 2 1 11 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Defensores Glew 14 37 8 +29 32
2 Deportivo Metalurgico 14 32 10 +22 32
3 SAT Moreno 14 24 9 +15 33
4 Nautico Hacoaj 14 24 11 +13 24
5 Uribelarrea 16 19 11 +8 29
6 Buenos Aires City 16 18 13 +5 25
7 Ezeiza 16 18 17 +1 26
8 Estrella de Berisso 14 18 24 -6 15
9 Barrancas UMET 16 17 9 +8 31
10 Alumni Los Hornos 16 17 20 -3 18
11 Control Orientado 16 15 20 -5 18
12 Las Mandarinas 16 12 20 -8 14
13 Belgrano Zarate 16 11 10 +1 22
14 Atletico Pilar 14 11 24 -13 9
15 Juventud de Bernal 14 10 41 -31 8
16 Provincial 14 9 38 -29 7
17 Everton La Plata 16 7 14 -7 14
Torneo Promocional Amateur Argentina. Torneo Promocional Amateur Predictions