Everton La Plata vs Alumni Los Hornos Statistics & Analysis

Everton La Plata

Jun 20, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

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Alumni Los Hornos

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Everton La Plata Everton La Plata ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1876389

Closing Odds 3.34

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Everton La Plata win · Everton La Plata 1–0 Alumni Los Hornos

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Alumni Los Hornos (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Everton La Plata (1X2)	36.8	40.6	-3.8
Draw (1X2)	30.1	32.8	-2.7
Alumni Los Hornos (1X2)	33.1	26.6	+6.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	36.7	+11.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	63.3	-11.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.7%. The difference — about 11.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Everton La Plata (1X2)	2.19	2.19
Draw (1X2)	2.71	2.71
Alumni Los Hornos (1X2)	3.34	3.34
Over 2.5 goals	2.48	2.48
Under 2.5 goals	1.44	1.44

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Torneo Promocional Amateur
Fixture: Everton La Plata vs Alumni Los Hornos
Kickoff: 2026-06-20 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.8% · Draw 30.1% · Away 33.1%
xG (showing): Everton La Plata 1.32 — Alumni Los Hornos 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +10.5 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Torneo Promocional Amateur — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	SAT Moreno	14	11	0	3	33
2	Defensores Glew	14	10	2	2	32
3	Deportivo Metalurgico	14	10	2	2	32
4	Barrancas UMET	16	9	4	3	31
5	Uribelarrea	16	8	5	3	29
6	Ezeiza	16	7	5	4	26
7	Buenos Aires City	16	7	4	5	25
8	Nautico Hacoaj	14	7	3	4	24
9	Belgrano Zarate	16	5	7	4	22
10	Alumni Los Hornos	16	5	3	8	18
11	Control Orientado	16	5	3	8	18
12	Estrella de Berisso	14	4	3	7	15
13	Everton La Plata	16	3	5	8	14
14	Las Mandarinas	16	4	2	10	14
15	Atletico Pilar	14	2	3	9	9
16	Juventud de Bernal	14	2	2	10	8
17	Provincial	14	2	1	11	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Defensores Glew	14	37	8	+29	32
2	Deportivo Metalurgico	14	32	10	+22	32
3	SAT Moreno	14	24	9	+15	33
4	Nautico Hacoaj	14	24	11	+13	24
5	Uribelarrea	16	19	11	+8	29
6	Buenos Aires City	16	18	13	+5	25
7	Ezeiza	16	18	17	+1	26
8	Estrella de Berisso	14	18	24	-6	15
9	Barrancas UMET	16	17	9	+8	31
10	Alumni Los Hornos	16	17	20	-3	18
11	Control Orientado	16	15	20	-5	18
12	Las Mandarinas	16	12	20	-8	14
13	Belgrano Zarate	16	11	10	+1	22
14	Atletico Pilar	14	11	24	-13	9
15	Juventud de Bernal	14	10	41	-31	8
16	Provincial	14	9	38	-29	7
17	Everton La Plata	16	7	14	-7	14