Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera A / Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali

Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira
Oct 10, 2026 - 20:30
0 0.84
0 1.47
xG Accuracy: 53%
Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Deportivo Cali Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13235488

Closing Odds 3.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Deportivo Cali
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Pereira (1X2) 19.9 20.5 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.6 +5.1
Deportivo Cali (1X2) 50.5 54.9 -4.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.6%. The difference — about 5.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Pereira (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Deportivo Cali (1X2) 1.68 1.68 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera A
  • Fixture: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 19.9% · Draw 29.7% · Away 50.5%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Pereira 0.84 — Deportivo Cali 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.31)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 59.3% · Implied: 52.0% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.4% · No 54.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera A Primera A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 13 1 5 40
2 Junior 19 11 2 6 35
3 Deportivo Pasto 19 10 4 5 34
4 America de Cali 19 10 3 6 33
5 Once Caldas 19 8 9 2 33
6 Deportes Tolima 19 8 7 4 31
7 Santa Fe 19 7 8 4 29
8 La Equidad 19 7 7 5 28
9 Deportivo Cali 19 7 6 6 27
10 Millonarios 19 7 5 7 26
11 Independiente Medellin 19 7 5 7 26
12 Rionegro Aguilas 19 7 5 7 26
13 Bucaramanga 19 5 8 6 23
14 Llaneros 19 4 10 5 22
15 Fortaleza FC 19 5 7 7 22
16 Jaguares 19 5 3 11 18
17 Alianza Petrolera 19 3 8 8 17
18 Chico 19 5 2 12 17
19 Cucuta 19 3 7 9 16
20 Deportivo Pereira 19 1 7 11 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 35 15 +20 40
2 Once Caldas 19 31 22 +9 33
3 Millonarios 19 31 23 +8 26
4 Junior 19 31 24 +7 35
5 Santa Fe 19 29 22 +7 29
6 Deportivo Pasto 19 29 25 +4 34
7 Deportes Tolima 19 27 17 +10 31
8 Bucaramanga 19 26 20 +6 23
9 Independiente Medellin 19 26 24 +2 26
10 La Equidad 19 26 26 0 28
11 America de Cali 19 25 15 +10 33
12 Fortaleza FC 19 22 27 -5 22
13 Cucuta 19 22 35 -13 16
14 Deportivo Cali 19 20 16 +4 27
15 Rionegro Aguilas 19 20 25 -5 26
16 Jaguares 19 20 33 -13 18
17 Llaneros 19 17 20 -3 22
18 Chico 19 15 32 -17 17
19 Deportivo Pereira 19 15 32 -17 10
20 Alianza Petrolera 19 13 27 -14 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 America de Cali 19 9.1 4.4 +4.7 33
2 Rionegro Aguilas 19 10.3 6.2 +4.1 26
3 Millonarios 19 7.8 4.3 +3.5 26
4 Atletico Nacional 19 6.6 3.5 +3.1 40
5 Deportes Tolima 19 6.8 4.2 +2.6 31
6 Deportivo Cali 19 6.3 3.7 +2.6 27
7 Once Caldas 19 5.0 5.0 0.0 33
8 Chico 19 4.8 5.0 -0.2 17
9 Independiente Medellin 19 3.5 3.7 -0.2 26
10 Alianza Petrolera 19 7.7 8.7 -1.0 17
11 Santa Fe 19 4.0 5.1 -1.1 29
12 La Equidad 19 5.7 6.9 -1.2 28
13 Cucuta 19 5.2 6.6 -1.4 16
14 Bucaramanga 19 3.4 5.0 -1.6 23
15 Junior 19 4.4 6.1 -1.7 35
16 Deportivo Pereira 19 4.8 6.8 -2.0 10
17 Fortaleza FC 19 3.4 5.4 -2.0 22
18 Llaneros 19 4.7 7.2 -2.5 22
19 Deportivo Pasto 19 4.5 7.0 -2.5 34
20 Jaguares 19 2.8 5.8 -3.0 18
Primera A Colombia. Primera A Predictions