Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera A / Once Caldas vs Llaneros

Once Caldas vs Llaneros Statistics & Analysis

Once Caldas Once Caldas
Oct 10, 2026 - 01:10
1 1.26
0 0.69
xG Accuracy: 77%
Llaneros Llaneros
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Once Caldas Once Caldas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13252693

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Once Caldas win · Once Caldas 1–0 Llaneros
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera A
  • Fixture: Once Caldas vs Llaneros
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 01:10:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.3% · Draw 29.9% · Away 17.8%
  • xG (showing): Once Caldas 1.26 — Llaneros 0.69 (total xG ≈ 1.95)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.0% · Implied: 50.9% · Probability edge: +18.1 pts · Est. EV: +31.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera A Primera A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 13 1 5 40
2 Junior 19 11 2 6 35
3 Deportivo Pasto 19 10 4 5 34
4 America de Cali 19 10 3 6 33
5 Once Caldas 19 8 9 2 33
6 Deportes Tolima 19 8 7 4 31
7 Santa Fe 19 7 8 4 29
8 La Equidad 19 7 7 5 28
9 Deportivo Cali 19 7 6 6 27
10 Millonarios 19 7 5 7 26
11 Independiente Medellin 19 7 5 7 26
12 Rionegro Aguilas 19 7 5 7 26
13 Bucaramanga 19 5 8 6 23
14 Llaneros 19 4 10 5 22
15 Fortaleza FC 19 5 7 7 22
16 Jaguares 19 5 3 11 18
17 Alianza Petrolera 19 3 8 8 17
18 Chico 19 5 2 12 17
19 Cucuta 19 3 7 9 16
20 Deportivo Pereira 19 1 7 11 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atletico Nacional 19 35 15 +20 40
2 Once Caldas 19 31 22 +9 33
3 Millonarios 19 31 23 +8 26
4 Junior 19 31 24 +7 35
5 Santa Fe 19 29 22 +7 29
6 Deportivo Pasto 19 29 25 +4 34
7 Deportes Tolima 19 27 17 +10 31
8 Bucaramanga 19 26 20 +6 23
9 Independiente Medellin 19 26 24 +2 26
10 La Equidad 19 26 26 0 28
11 America de Cali 19 25 15 +10 33
12 Fortaleza FC 19 22 27 -5 22
13 Cucuta 19 22 35 -13 16
14 Deportivo Cali 19 20 16 +4 27
15 Rionegro Aguilas 19 20 25 -5 26
16 Jaguares 19 20 33 -13 18
17 Llaneros 19 17 20 -3 22
18 Chico 19 15 32 -17 17
19 Deportivo Pereira 19 15 32 -17 10
20 Alianza Petrolera 19 13 27 -14 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 America de Cali 19 9.7 5.3 +4.4 33
2 Rionegro Aguilas 19 10.3 6.2 +4.1 26
3 Deportes Tolima 19 8.3 4.6 +3.7 31
4 Millonarios 19 7.8 4.3 +3.5 26
5 Atletico Nacional 19 6.6 3.5 +3.1 40
6 Deportivo Cali 19 6.3 3.7 +2.6 27
7 Independiente Medellin 19 4.5 4.4 +0.1 26
8 Once Caldas 19 5.0 5.0 0.0 33
9 Chico 19 5.4 5.9 -0.5 17
10 Junior 19 5.2 6.1 -0.9 35
11 Alianza Petrolera 19 7.7 8.7 -1.0 17
12 Cucuta 19 6.1 7.2 -1.1 16
13 Santa Fe 19 4.0 5.1 -1.1 29
14 Bucaramanga 19 3.4 5.0 -1.6 23
15 Deportivo Pereira 19 4.8 6.8 -2.0 10
16 Fortaleza FC 19 3.4 5.4 -2.0 22
17 La Equidad 19 5.7 7.8 -2.1 28
18 Llaneros 19 4.7 7.2 -2.5 22
19 Deportivo Pasto 19 4.5 7.0 -2.5 34
20 Jaguares 19 3.2 7.4 -4.2 18
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