Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Real Santander vs Union Magdalena

Real Santander vs Union Magdalena Statistics & Analysis

Real Santander Real Santander
Oct 03, 2026 - 20:30
1 1.11
3 1.49
xG Accuracy: 64%
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11262319

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Union Magdalena win · Real Santander 1–3 Union Magdalena
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Union Magdalena (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Union Magdalena (1X2) by about 4.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Santander (1X2) 26.7 30.5 -3.8
Draw (1X2) 29.0 29.2 -0.1
Union Magdalena (1X2) 44.3 40.3 +4.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.2 +2.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.8 -2.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 44.3% on Union Magdalena (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 40.3%. The difference — about 4.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Santander (1X2) 3.04 3.04 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Union Magdalena (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.04 2.04 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Real Santander vs Union Magdalena
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): Real Santander 1.11 — Union Magdalena 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 31 17 8 6 59
2 Real Cartagena 33 15 10 8 55
3 Envigado 33 15 10 8 55
4 Quindio 31 15 9 7 54
5 Union Magdalena 30 14 7 9 49
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Ind. Yumbo 25 10 9 6 39
8 Bogota FC 31 9 10 12 37
9 Real Soacha 26 9 9 8 36
10 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
11 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 25 6 9 10 27
14 Depor FC 26 5 8 13 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 25 4 7 14 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 33 51 36 +15 55
2 Envigado 33 43 28 +15 55
3 Union Magdalena 30 41 29 +12 49
4 Internacional Palmira 31 40 27 +13 59
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Real Soacha 26 33 29 +4 36
7 Quindio 31 32 21 +11 54
8 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Ind. Yumbo 25 27 20 +7 39
12 Bogota FC 31 25 32 -7 37
13 Depor FC 26 25 40 -15 23
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 25 20 27 -7 27
16 Leones FC 25 15 40 -25 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions