Patriotas vs Ind. Yumbo Statistics & Analysis

Patriotas

Oct 03, 2026 - 20:30

0 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 64%

⚽

Ind. Yumbo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Patriotas Ind. Yumbo ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11262287

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ind. Yumbo win · Patriotas 0–1 Ind. Yumbo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera B
Fixture: Patriotas vs Ind. Yumbo
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Patriotas 1.35 — Ind. Yumbo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	31	17	8	6	59
2	Real Cartagena	33	15	10	8	55
3	Envigado	33	15	10	8	55
4	Quindio	31	15	9	7	54
5	Union Magdalena	30	14	7	9	49
6	Tigres FC	31	11	9	11	42
7	Ind. Yumbo	25	10	9	6	39
8	Bogota FC	31	9	10	12	37
9	Real Soacha	26	9	9	8	36
10	Patriotas	25	9	7	9	34
11	Barranquilla	31	9	7	15	34
12	Popayan	24	6	9	9	27
13	Orsomarso	25	6	9	10	27
14	Depor FC	26	5	8	13	23
15	Real Santander	25	3	10	12	19
16	Leones FC	25	4	7	14	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Real Cartagena	33	51	36	+15	55
2	Envigado	33	43	28	+15	55
3	Union Magdalena	30	41	29	+12	49
4	Internacional Palmira	31	40	27	+13	59
5	Barranquilla	31	36	42	-6	34
6	Real Soacha	26	33	29	+4	36
7	Quindio	31	32	21	+11	54
8	Tigres FC	31	31	26	+5	42
9	Patriotas	25	30	33	-3	34
10	Popayan	24	29	31	-2	27
11	Ind. Yumbo	25	27	20	+7	39
12	Bogota FC	31	25	32	-7	37
13	Depor FC	26	25	40	-15	23
14	Real Santander	25	21	38	-17	19
15	Orsomarso	25	20	27	-7	27
16	Leones FC	25	15	40	-25	19