Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Orsomarso vs Quindio

Orsomarso vs Quindio Statistics & Analysis

Orsomarso Orsomarso
Oct 06, 2026 - 00:30
0 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
Quindio Quindio
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Quindio Quindio ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11908786

Closing Odds 2.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Quindio win · Orsomarso 0–1 Quindio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Quindio (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Quindio (1X2) by about 5.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Orsomarso (1X2) 32.9 36.2 -3.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.3 -1.8
Quindio (1X2) 37.6 32.4 +5.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Quindio (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.4%. The difference — about 5.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE5 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Orsomarso (1X2) 2.55 2.55 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Quindio (1X2) 2.85 2.85 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Orsomarso vs Quindio
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-06 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Orsomarso 1.25 — Quindio 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.7% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 32 17 8 7 59
2 Envigado 34 15 11 8 56
3 Real Cartagena 34 15 10 9 55
4 Quindio 31 15 9 7 54
5 Union Magdalena 31 15 7 9 52
6 Tigres FC 32 12 9 11 45
7 Ind. Yumbo 26 11 9 6 42
8 Bogota FC 32 9 11 12 38
9 Real Soacha 26 9 9 8 36
10 Patriotas 26 9 7 10 34
11 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
12 Popayan 25 7 9 9 30
13 Orsomarso 25 6 9 10 27
14 Depor FC 26 5 8 13 23
15 Real Santander 26 3 10 13 19
16 Leones FC 25 4 7 14 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 34 53 39 +14 55
2 Envigado 34 46 31 +15 56
3 Union Magdalena 31 44 30 +14 52
4 Internacional Palmira 32 40 28 +12 59
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Real Soacha 26 33 29 +4 36
7 Quindio 31 32 21 +11 54
8 Tigres FC 32 32 26 +6 45
9 Popayan 25 32 33 -1 30
10 Patriotas 26 30 34 -4 34
11 Ind. Yumbo 26 28 20 +8 42
12 Bogota FC 32 28 35 -7 38
13 Depor FC 26 25 40 -15 23
14 Real Santander 26 22 41 -19 19
15 Orsomarso 25 20 27 -7 27
16 Leones FC 25 15 40 -25 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions