Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Leones FC vs Barranquilla

Leones FC vs Barranquilla Statistics & Analysis

Leones FC Leones FC
Oct 07, 2026 - 21:00
1 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 85%
Barranquilla Barranquilla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barranquilla Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12190395

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Leones FC 1–1 Barranquilla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.88 percentage points on Leones FC (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Barranquilla (1X2) by about 18.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Leones FC (1X2) 32.4 56.7 -24.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.5 +6.1
Barranquilla (1X2) 38.0 19.8 +18.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Barranquilla (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.8%. The difference — about 18.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Leones FC (1X2) 1.66 1.64 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 3.85 3.95 -0.5
Barranquilla (1X2) 4.6 4.7 -0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Leones FC vs Barranquilla
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Leones FC 1.24 — Barranquilla 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Barranquilla
  • Model: 38.0% · Implied: 19.8% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +5.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 32 17 8 7 59
2 Quindio 32 16 9 7 57
3 Envigado 34 15 11 8 56
4 Real Cartagena 34 15 10 9 55
5 Union Magdalena 32 15 8 9 53
6 Tigres FC 32 12 9 11 45
7 Ind. Yumbo 26 11 9 6 42
8 Bogota FC 32 9 11 12 38
9 Real Soacha 26 9 9 8 36
10 Barranquilla 32 9 8 15 35
11 Patriotas 26 9 7 10 34
12 Popayan 26 7 10 9 31
13 Orsomarso 26 6 9 11 27
14 Depor FC 26 5 8 13 23
15 Leones FC 26 4 8 14 20
16 Real Santander 26 3 10 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 34 53 39 +14 55
2 Envigado 34 46 31 +15 56
3 Union Magdalena 32 45 31 +14 53
4 Internacional Palmira 32 40 28 +12 59
5 Barranquilla 32 37 43 -6 35
6 Quindio 32 33 21 +12 57
7 Real Soacha 26 33 29 +4 36
8 Popayan 26 33 34 -1 31
9 Tigres FC 32 32 26 +6 45
10 Patriotas 26 30 34 -4 34
11 Ind. Yumbo 26 28 20 +8 42
12 Bogota FC 32 28 35 -7 38
13 Depor FC 26 25 40 -15 23
14 Real Santander 26 22 41 -19 19
15 Orsomarso 26 20 28 -8 27
16 Leones FC 26 16 41 -25 20
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions