Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Bogota FC vs Envigado

Bogota FC vs Envigado Statistics & Analysis

Bogota FC Bogota FC
Oct 05, 2026 - 22:00
3 1.18
3 1.42
xG Accuracy: 39%
Envigado Envigado
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Envigado Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11674401

Closing Odds 2.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Bogota FC 3–3 Envigado
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.62 percentage points on Envigado (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE5.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bogota FC (1X2) 29.6 29.0 +0.6
Draw (1X2) 29.4 31.5 -2.1
Envigado (1X2) 41.0 39.5 +1.4

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE5 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Bogota FC (1X2) 3.0 3.2 -1.7
Draw (1X2) 2.85 2.95 -0.9
Envigado (1X2) 2.5 2.35 +2.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Bogota FC vs Envigado
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-05 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Bogota FC 1.18 — Envigado 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.7% · Probability edge: +11.5 pts · Est. EV: +26.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 32 17 8 7 59
2 Envigado 34 15 11 8 56
3 Real Cartagena 34 15 10 9 55
4 Quindio 31 15 9 7 54
5 Union Magdalena 31 15 7 9 52
6 Tigres FC 32 12 9 11 45
7 Ind. Yumbo 26 11 9 6 42
8 Bogota FC 32 9 11 12 38
9 Real Soacha 26 9 9 8 36
10 Patriotas 26 9 7 10 34
11 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
12 Popayan 25 7 9 9 30
13 Orsomarso 25 6 9 10 27
14 Depor FC 26 5 8 13 23
15 Real Santander 26 3 10 13 19
16 Leones FC 25 4 7 14 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 34 53 39 +14 55
2 Envigado 34 46 31 +15 56
3 Union Magdalena 31 44 30 +14 52
4 Internacional Palmira 32 40 28 +12 59
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Real Soacha 26 33 29 +4 36
7 Quindio 31 32 21 +11 54
8 Tigres FC 32 32 26 +6 45
9 Popayan 25 32 33 -1 30
10 Patriotas 26 30 34 -4 34
11 Ind. Yumbo 26 28 20 +8 42
12 Bogota FC 32 28 35 -7 38
13 Depor FC 26 25 40 -15 23
14 Real Santander 26 22 41 -19 19
15 Orsomarso 25 20 27 -7 27
16 Leones FC 25 15 40 -25 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions