Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Quindio vs Envigado

Quindio vs Envigado Statistics & Analysis

Quindio Quindio
Aug 23, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Envigado Envigado
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Quindio Quindio ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4373153

Closing Odds 3.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Quindio win · Quindio 1–0 Envigado
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Envigado (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 13.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Quindio (1X2) 35.2 38.9 -3.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.6 -0.9
Envigado (1X2) 35.2 30.5 +4.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 35.0 +13.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 65.0 -13.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.0%. The difference — about 13.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Quindio (1X2) 2.38 2.38 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.03 3.03 0.0
Envigado (1X2) 3.04 3.04 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.68 2.68 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.44 1.44 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Quindio vs Envigado
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Quindio 1.3 — Envigado 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.0% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +29.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 31 14 9 8 51
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 30 11 8 11 41
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 24 9 7 8 34
10 Barranquilla 30 9 7 14 34
11 Real Soacha 24 7 9 8 30
12 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
13 Popayan 23 5 9 9 24
14 Depor FC 24 5 8 11 23
15 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
16 Real Santander 24 3 9 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 31 40 28 +12 51
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 30 36 41 -5 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 30 30 25 +5 41
8 Real Soacha 24 30 28 +2 30
9 Patriotas 24 29 29 0 34
10 Popayan 23 25 30 -5 24
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 24 24 35 -11 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 24 20 37 -17 18
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions