Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Popayan vs Union Magdalena

Popayan vs Union Magdalena Statistics & Analysis

Popayan Popayan
Oct 07, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.17
1 1.43
xG Accuracy: 85%
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Union Magdalena Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2969795

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Popayan 1–1 Union Magdalena
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Popayan vs Union Magdalena
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Popayan 1.17 — Union Magdalena 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +16.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 32 17 8 7 59
2 Quindio 32 16 9 7 57
3 Envigado 34 15 11 8 56
4 Real Cartagena 34 15 10 9 55
5 Union Magdalena 32 15 8 9 53
6 Tigres FC 32 12 9 11 45
7 Ind. Yumbo 26 11 9 6 42
8 Bogota FC 32 9 11 12 38
9 Real Soacha 26 9 9 8 36
10 Barranquilla 32 9 8 15 35
11 Patriotas 26 9 7 10 34
12 Popayan 26 7 10 9 31
13 Orsomarso 26 6 9 11 27
14 Depor FC 26 5 8 13 23
15 Leones FC 26 4 8 14 20
16 Real Santander 26 3 10 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 34 53 39 +14 55
2 Envigado 34 46 31 +15 56
3 Union Magdalena 32 45 31 +14 53
4 Internacional Palmira 32 40 28 +12 59
5 Barranquilla 32 37 43 -6 35
6 Quindio 32 33 21 +12 57
7 Real Soacha 26 33 29 +4 36
8 Popayan 26 33 34 -1 31
9 Tigres FC 32 32 26 +6 45
10 Patriotas 26 30 34 -4 34
11 Ind. Yumbo 26 28 20 +8 42
12 Bogota FC 32 28 35 -7 38
13 Depor FC 26 25 40 -15 23
14 Real Santander 26 22 41 -19 19
15 Orsomarso 26 20 28 -8 27
16 Leones FC 26 16 41 -25 20
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions