Statistics / Football / Peru. Primera División / Universitario vs FBC Melgar

Universitario vs FBC Melgar Statistics & Analysis

Universitario Universitario
Oct 11, 2026 - 00:00
2 1.69
2 1.46
xG Accuracy: 79%
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Universitario Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13183570

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Universitario vs FBC Melgar
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 26.2% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Universitario 1.69 — FBC Melgar 1.46 (total xG ≈ 3.15)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.0% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +15.0 pts · Est. EV: +27.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 12 6 9 42
7 Cienciano 27 12 5 10 41
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 Cienciano 27 46 40 +6 41
3 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 36 45 -9 42
13 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 ADT 27 3.3 0.4 +2.9 25
2 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 4.0 2.7 +1.3 48
4 Comerciantes Unidos 27 2.1 1.1 +1.0 30
5 FBC Melgar 27 1.7 1.4 +0.3 46
6 Universitario 27 1.4 1.7 -0.3 49
7 Sport Huancayo 27 1.3 1.6 -0.3 35
8 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
9 Juan Pablo II College 27 1.1 2.1 -1.0 34
10 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
11 FC Cajamarca 27 0.4 3.3 -2.9 27
12 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 — — — 42
13 Cienciano 27 — — — 41
14 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
15 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
16 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
17 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions